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Round 5 - AFL Men’s ratings updates and preview

After a pretty brutal Round 4, we saw some big movements in our ratings. That leads to some interesting matchups this week. Read on to see who our model is tipping! Also a quick reminder that you always find full ratings and current tips updated each Monday. Ratings and Simulations The big loser here was clearly Adelaide, after a shock, heavy loss to Collingwood. They dropped from pretty clear top rated team down to 4th. [Read More]

Round 4 AFL Men's ratings

With round 3 done and dusted, are the top teams beginning to emerge? You can see the full ratings, results and tips here but see our current ratings and simulations below. Not a whole lot of movement at the top, with Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Richmond and Port remaining in the top tier of teams. These teams are all projected around 16 wins and ~80% chance of finals at this early stage, with Adelaide poking it’s nose out in front. [Read More]

Kangawhos? AFL Men’s Round 2 Preview

The annual super long weekend of football that I always miss because I’m camping is upon us! After a few creaks and a bit of encouragement, I’ve managed to get the ELO model up and running for the new season, including my first set of simulations! A quick reminder that you can always find my Tips and Current Ratings and Simulations on these pages. I’ll aim to update these every Monday following a round if you need to see them before I blog! [Read More]

Welcome Back

Hello! It’s been quite a while since there was any content on the site - my last post was before the grand final. However, I have been doing a bit of work behind the scenes as you may notice. I thought I would give a quick update on a few things about the blog and what you can look forward to this year. Blog migration As you may have noticed, my blog is looking a little funky. [Read More]

Grand Final Time!

Onto our last game of the season and what a pretty awesome matchup! The craziness that is the Tiger train marched on while the Crows, most peoples ‘best team all year’ tries to spoil the Richmondy army. Last year I wrote a little preview that showed the path to the grand final of each time - I’ve dug up that old code and shown the same below. Happy reading! [Read More]

Preliminary Finals - quick tips

No preview from me this weekend unfortunately guys. Here are my tips below - all the best to fans from all 4 teams!

Finals Round 2 - the Tiger lid?

A super quick preview this week. Can Sydney continue their run? What about West Coast fairytale? Read our ratings to find out! Ratings Our top 2 remained unchanged after expected wins last week. Sydney remains our highest rated team but need to win 3 away games from here. Richmond shot up our rankings with their big win - jumping into the top 3 and displacing Geelong, who drop down to 6th. [Read More]

Finals Week 1 - a natural order

We are finally around to the first week of finals, in what is talked about as a fairly open finals race. Read on to find out what we are predicting this week and for the rest of the finals series! Ratings Firstly to our final ratings for the regular season interestingly, our top 8 rated teams all made finals! Sydney surged ahead after Adelaide’s dead rubber loss to WCE. Those two teams were clear of a pretty well ordered top 8 - the only teams whose finishing position on the ladder didn’t match their rating position is Richmond and Sydney. [Read More]

Round 23 - falling into place

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to publish a preview post this week. Hopefully anyone needing my tips or projections found them over here (they are updated each Monday).

For those who rely on this blog post, here are the predictions for the week! Happy final round!

Round 22 - pain in the neck no more

Onto our penultimate round! There looks to be some pretty important and close games this week as the finals race is still wide open. Also, for those following along - I finally got my neck brace off today after 7 weeks! There is still a fair bit of rehab to to go but looks like I’m in the clear regarding long term issues. Thanks for all the messages of support I’ve received. [Read More]