Round 6 Predictions

While I was hoping to have this site up and running before the season started, my PhD thesis and then full time work got in the way.

Nonetheless, its not too late to start posting predictions! I plan to maybe go back and revisit a priori how my model would have performed in the early rounds but that’s for a later time. You can at least check in on my pre-season rankings.

Here are my ELO predictions for Round 6. At some stage, I plan to turn this into an interactive page, similar to the FiveThirtyEight ones but for now, I’ll just post some predictions.

Probability and Margins for each game in round 6, 2016
Probability and Margins for each game in round 6, 2016

In future weeks I may do a game by game summary but for now, I’ll make some general observations.

  • There appear to be a bunch of close games this weekend, with NM v WB, Rich v PA and Carl v Ess all seemingly tough to pick.
  • I’ve written about Freo’s start to the year being so bad – things aren’t looking great for turning that around against an in form Adelaide
  • I’m not sure why my model is predicting such a big win for Hawthorn but it will be interesting to see how that one pans out

I should also note that I’m putting both my Margin and Probability predictions into the Monash tipping competition (full disclosure, there are no prizes). I’ll update on how they are going later on.

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