The first bye round of the year saw my ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 correctly tip 4 of the 6 games with an MAE of 25.5. Like last week – the model struggled to separate the teams in both matches that it got wrong (Bulldogs v Geelong and Freo v Port Adelaide).
The main mover in our ELO ratings were Geelong, after their dominating win over the Bulldogs, lifting them by 28 rating points and jumping into a clear 3rd spot on the ELO ladder. Adelaide holds their spot on top during the bye, while interestingly Fremantle has almost got themselves back to the 1500 point mark that is our league average.
I introduced the match importance rating last week to try and quantify the relative effect a win or loss in a match could have on the end of season finishing position of a team. Last week, the Bulldogs v Geelong game was the most important and we can see the effect this has had on the Bulldogs in our simulated season – they have dropped to 7th on our simulated ladder, with their Top 4 and Top 2 probabilities dropping by 19% and 16%, respectively.
Geelong and Hawthorn are firming as our favourites for the top 2, both having almost a 50% of finishing top 2 and roughly a 25% chance of finishing as minor premiers. We are perhaps finally starting to see a big of order amongst our teams as we get further into the season.
Port Adelaides loss also saw their Top 8 probability drop from 36% to 22% clinging as the only team currently outside of the top 8 with a greater than 10% chance of jumping into it.