Our next bye round, subjectively, doesn’t look great on paper. Only the Collingwood v Freo match is considered tight by our ELO model, however it is fairly insignificant as measured by our Match Importance metric. The remaining matches, despite having some significance on the relevant team finishing positions, look fairly one sided.
Adelaide v North Melbourne, Thurs 7:20pm Adelaide Oval
Probably the most interesting match of the round, and certainly with the biggest Match Importance rating, we see the top rated Crows favoured pretty heavily over the 7th ranked Kangaroos, particularly with the Home Ground Advantage. A loss for either side affects their top 4 chances by roughly 30%. Adelaide by 23 points.
Collingwood v Fremantle, Fri 7:30pm MCG
As indicated, this match doesn’t really have an effect on our final finishing positions for either team, giving a combined change in probability of the top 8 of 2.8% for both teams. Despite that, the game looks like it could be tight, with our 9th ranked Freo team on the up after a tough start. Freo by 5 points.