My ELO model has completed a clean sweep of 4 out 6 tips for the bye rounds on the weekend, incorrectly tipping against Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs. It was far and away the best round of the year for margin tipping, with an MAE of 16.5! That gives us a season total of 92 tips from 120 games (73%) and an MAE that has tipped under 30, sitting at 29.4.
With such a tight MAE, there isn’t a lot of movement in our ratings this week since each team performed relatively close to where our model expected. The obvious big movers are Gold Coast and St Kilda, after the big win by the relatively weaker rated Suns. Adelaide remains relatively clear on top of the ratings after the 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams all had byes.
The biggest impact on our finals simulations last week, as measured by the match importance rating was certainly the Sydney v Bulldogs game, is would be expected by a matchup between two top 4 sides. The last minute goal to Jason Johannisen saw the Bulldogs leapfrog the Swans on our simulated season ladder. The Swans top 4 aspirations took a hit, dropping from 54% down to 44%, while the Bulldogs top 4 chances jumped from 34% to 46%. Given the tightness on the actual AFL ladder this season, there should be a few more of these big impact games coming up!
The race for the top 2 didn’t change too much after the weekends matches, again, likely due the bye for 3 of our top 4 sides. The Crows and Hawks remain almost 50% chances get finish inside the top 2.
Port has improved its chances of dislodging one of the top 8 after its win on the weekend, jumping up to a 28% chance. The most likely of our top 8 to drop out is North Melbourne, who miss the 8 in 18% of simulations, despite their fantastic start to the season.