Round 21 Predictions – Saints won’t go away

While I keep writing that our top 8 has been set for awhile, the chance of someone jumping into the finals hasn’t gone away. The Saints are still a 17% of making it and the order of our top 4 in particular is still very fluid meaning there is still plenty of important games!

Round Predictions

round21

The ELO model is relatively confident in most matches this week. With our only top 8 matchups (Hawthron v Kangaroos and GWS v West Coast) coming between teams at the top of the rankings versus those near the bottom, we see a fairly big discrepancy in relative rankings this week. In fact, the discrepancy is so big that 5 of our matches are predicting relatively comfortable wins to the away team, despite our HGA boost. Next week I might take a look at how well my model historically does during this period but it could be argued – as Figuring Footy has – that there is a lot more noise during these periods as teams start playing for different reasons other than making finals.

Match Importance

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-5

 

St Kilda v Sydney, Sat 7:25pm, Etihad.

As all of our ‘jump into the top 8’ sides have fallen during important games this week, the Saints remain our last hope. They currently have a 17% chance according to our latest sims but this week is pretty crucial. A win sees them make finals in 50% of simulations, while a loss drops that to 9%. For Sydney, a win almost ties up their top 4 chances. Considering they are sitting clear on top of our rating system, while the Saints remain a below average team, we see this as a pretty easy win for the Swans.  Sydney (66% chance) by 26 points. 

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, Sat 2:20pm, MCG.

With the Hawks shock loss last week, this game looms as super important for their top 4 chances. Currently they sit at 74% chances but a loss sees that drop to 54%. For North, they are still our most likely side to drop out of the top 8 and so need a win to avoid that potential. Lose this week and their 77% shot drops down to 59%, while a win basically guarantees finals. Lots on the line! Unfortunately for North, our ELO model is as our 8th best team, although the last 2 weeks have seen the Hawks drop down to 4th spot on our ratings table. Nonetheless, they should get the job done.  Hawthorn (61% chance) by 19 points. 

Leave a Reply