So we enter our final round of the year with a tantalising matchup between the long-suffering Bulldogs and the über consistent Swans. It is fair to say that the two teams have had very different paths to the finals – the Swans finishing minor premiers and being high up in our rankings all year. The Dogs never really climbed much higher than 6th in our rankings all year and have battle both injury and variable form.
Unfortunately I didn’t get a chance to review the round last week (or post predictions). I’m putting this here as a placeholder for brevity so that I have the ratings showing for anyone interested.
Following a cracking weekend of finals football, I haven’t had the time I’d like to get this weeks results and predictions up. I also did find out that my simulation of finals script, that I’d hurriedly written back in about round 13 actually couldn’t handle real finals data being thrown at it. Nonetheless, the simulations of the remainder of the finals series are in, and I’ll combine it with my predictions later on in this post!
A quick post here as I’ve run out of time to do a preview. Will try get one up before the Cats v Geelong game, but tipping WCE comfortably tonight.
I must say I have enjoyed the free space from the normal AFL cycle. I enjoyed watching the Womens game with free air and in general, avoiding football for a nice refresher before September kicks off. The downside of this is that I haven’t really got around to writing too much about our previous season. I’ve decided that I’ll release some more in depth discussion on the 2016 season after the GF and so for now – here are our regular simulations and ratings updates.
With the home and away season over, and the controversial bye weekend, it gives us a nice chance to review the season performance for the inaugural plusSixOne season. Our ELO model managed to get through the last round relatively unscathed, with a total of 6 out of 9 tips. We missed on Adelaide’s terribly timed loss to West Coast, the Bombers running over the top of Carlton and Freo getting up against a tired Bulldogs. With a few blowout games on the weekend, our mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) was a pretty season 2nd worst of 37.9, suggesting that perhaps paying less attention to the end of season games may be an improvement I could make to the ELO model in future iterations.