A review of my AFL ELO model’s 2016 season

I introduced my ELO ratings last year slightly after the start of the season. While my main motivation was to implement a system that allowed for more objective team ratingsthat allows for some interesting comparisons and analyses of team performance[Ref]More to come on this![/ref], it is worth doing a review of the predictive performance of the system before we start this season. My model started the season with a somewhat arbitrary goal of tipping above 70% and keeping our mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) below 30.

So how did our model go?

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Simulating the 2017 AFL Mens season: Pre-season edition!

As I’ve indicated previously, I’ve finally cleared some time to get back into blogging! Sparked largely by a tweet from the fantastic The Arc blog, I’ve got some very preliminary season simulations together.

Continue reading “Simulating the 2017 AFL Mens season: Pre-season edition!”

Hello 2017 – plusSixOne preseason has begun!

Hello! It’s been a while since my last post – I had hoped to write a bit over summer but alas moving cities (I’m now in Sydney for anyone who’d like to catch up) and graduating my PhD got in the way. I’ve finally got back into it and raring to go for a big preseason!

Continue reading “Hello 2017 – plusSixOne preseason has begun!”