Round 10 – can Port continue their climb?

We are back this week after an unexpected week off last week! Check out our preview for round 10.

Ratings

Firstly, lets look at our ratings after an interesting round 9. We can see some serious movement for a few teams. Port continues on their merry ways with a big win over a (potentially unprepared?) Gold Coast in China. Essendon’s big win over WCE meant that they jumped up 4 spots to move within striking distance of breaking through ‘average’ team barrier of 1500 ratings points. West Coast fell perilously close to falling through that same mark. The Lions continue to be terrible.

Simulations

Onto our simulations which are perhaps starting to take shape. Ratings leader GWS remains our favourite to finish top of the ladder. We still only have 4 teams in double figures for that race in the Giants, Adelaide, Port and Geelong. It drops away considerably after that.

The most likely teams to usurp one of those 4 for a top four spot at this stage appear to be the Bulldogs and West Coast. Outside of that, a bunch of teams sit at around a 1 in 10 chance to clinch that second chance.

The top 8 race is being talked about as one of the more open ones. If I get time over the next few weeks, I’ll try and work that out! I probably only have data from last year to compare to but we’ll see. Nonetheless, 13 teams are given at least a 30% chance of making the 8. There will be some big games coming up so I’ll start calculating my importance rating in the coming weeks.

Tips

Finally, onto our crucial tips. Tonights game appears to be a flip of the coin with the model giving Port the slight edge. The other close game is the Dreamtime at the G matchup between Richmond and Essendon. Can Tiger fans endure another close finish?!

Interestingly, over at Squiggle there are a few disagreements among the models in the first and last games of the round. There typically isn’t many disagreements amongst our models so watch those games with interest!

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