Round 14 – Are the Demons rising from hell?

I’m going to stop commenting on how annoying Thursday football is for my blog (I actually quite like it in general). This week throws up some interesting games – read on to see our preview!

Ratings

Adelaide and GWS, with their byes, remain on top of our rankings 1.

Probably the two most notable movements have been Melbourne and the Bulldogs. The demons have have now jumped to 5th overall, in a bit of a tier behind our regular top 4. They are clearly rapidly improving on the back of some impressive wins this year.

On the opposite end are our reigning premiers in the Bulldogs who continue their free fall. They’ve now dropped out of the top 8 ranked teams and are almost below the dreaded ‘average team’ marker of 1500.

 

Simulations

GWS and Adelaide firmed as favourites for the minor premiership with Geelongs loss last week. The Cats lost 7% in their chances of clinching that top spot, which basically all went to the Giants and the Crows. No other team finishes top in more than 4% of simulations.

Those 3 teams still dominate our top 4 calculations, although Geelong again slipped a little, with Port Adelaide gaining ground at 40% chances. The big mover here are the Demons, who have jumped from a 16% chance last week to be 5th favourite at 34%. Richmond and WCE both finish in the top 4 roughly 25% of the time.

Lastly, to our finals race! The Giants, Crows and Cats look pretty safe. Our next tier sees Port, Melbourne, Richmond and West coast all finish in the top 8 between 63% and 78% of the time. A third tier of teams in Essendon, Bulldogs and Sydney are all 50/50 prospects while the Saints (32%) and Collingwood (20%) still appear in their fair share of finals! We will probably start to see those chances fall away for the rest of the teams but that is still 12 teams with a >20% of making it!

 

 

Tips

It’s been a rough few weeks for the tipping. This week sees some relatively uneven match ups so might be a good chance for us to get our numbers back up! Unfortunately, there are still some very close matchups with 4 games giving less than a 2 goal advantage to the ELO favourite.

The most interesting of these is probably the Port Adelaide v Collingwood game – with those of us tipping on The Squiggle being split down the middle!

I also seem to be the lone range tipping the Demon’s over at West Coast!


 

Notes:

  1. My chart is showing teams last result rather than last round which is a bit misleading. It was a bit too much for me to fix for the bye rounds, which are now over anyway. Next year

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