Round 19 – finals simulations are hot out the oven!

The Crows have emerged as big flag favourites in our model’s eyes. Have a read below for our first set of finals simulations for the season!

Ratings

After chopping and changing a fair bit over the season, Adelaide finally holds onto top stop with a good (yet expected) win against fellow top 4 rated team, Geelong. Sydney continues to impress while GWS and Geelong are rapidly falling back to a relatively weak pack.

The Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Richmond all managed to peak just above average this week, with Hawthorns late season rise impressive. Brisbane is also continuing to close to gap to 2nd last place. I find the relatively equal step size down from 12th to 18th rather nice!

Simulations

I’ve held off a little to get the finals simulations going this year but I’ve finally got around to it. Firstly however, let’s talk about getting there.

With the demise of Geelong and GWS, the Crows have emerged as big minor premiership favourites. Our model has them winning that title in almost 3/4 of simulations. Geelong is the only other team in double figure percentages. Those two teams, followed with GWS, remain the most likely to clinch a top 2 spot.

The top 4 race is still relatively open. Adelaide are near certainties to make it but after that it is close. GWS and Geelong both sit well above 2/3 of simulations. That final spot is closely fought between Richmond, Sydney, Port Adelaide and to a lesser extent, Melbourne. The last few rounds are going to be super important for that final 4 makeup.

The Crows have also, according to our model, clinched a finals berth! They make finals in all 10k simulations. I haven’t worked out if that is a mathematical certainty but it is good enough for me.

The remainder of the 8 is becoming clearer. We now have 8 teams with relatively high percentage chances of making it, with the 8th best chance, Essendon, still making it 67% of the time.

The best chance to jump into that are West Coast, Bulldogs and Saints, although those chances are slipping. Hawthorn fans, you still remain a small chance to jump in at 6%. Collingwood and Fremantle fans can also hold a little bit of hope. Outside of that, our model has ruled out Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton and the Lions from calculations.

 

Onto our early finals simulations. Adelaide makes the Grand Final just over half of all simulations. They are also our flag favourites, winning the big dance 31% of the time. Outside of that, we actually have GWS as our premiership favourite, followed by Geelong and Sydney.

Richmond is interesting – they finish 4th on our simulation table in terms of average wins but look to struggle in finals due to their low rating. Or maybe because it is Richmond!

I’ll keep posting these and they will have a bit more confidence as the season progresses.

Tips

Onto this weeks tips! There are some relatively one sided matchups this week (at least according to our model). The only game with a margin of less than 2 goals is the Bulldogs v Essendon game, which has some big implications for finals chances for both teams.

Happy tipping!


Leave a Reply