Pre prelim ratings

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Unfortunately I didn’t get a chance to review the round last week (or post predictions). I’m putting this here as a placeholder for brevity so that I have the ratings showing for anyone interested.

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For the record, based on these ratings my system tipped Sydney by 2 points (51% chance of winning) and the Giants by 25 points (64% chance of winning).

Finals Week 2

Following a cracking weekend of finals football, I haven’t had the time I’d like to get this weeks results and predictions up. I also did find out that my simulation of finals script, that I’d hurriedly written back in about round 13 actually couldn’t handle real finals data being thrown at it. Nonetheless, the simulations of the remainder of the finals series are in, and I’ll combine it with my predictions later on in this post! [Read More]

Final 2016 Season results

With the home and away season over, and the controversial bye weekend, it gives us a nice chance to review the season performance for the inaugural plusSixOne season. Our ELO model managed to get through the last round relatively unscathed, with a total of 6 out of 9 tips. We missed on Adelaide’s terribly timed loss to West Coast, the Bombers running over the top of Carlton and Freo getting up against a tired Bulldogs. [Read More]

Round 22 Results

As we enter the final round of the year, our ELO model had a pretty good round. Last week we tipped 7 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 20.4, which was our best MAPE outside of the bye rounds for the year. Our two misses were Richmond losing out to St Kilda and Melbourne missing against Carlton. That gives us a season total of 136 out of 189 (72%) which means that we only need to tip 3 wins this weekend to beat our season goal of 70%. [Read More]

Round 21 Results

I must admit to not catching a lot of footy over the weekend due to having Olympics fever, which is probably good considering my ELO model had a tough round this week! With a few upsets, and 5 games decided by a goal or less, we struggled picking winners this week. The model managed to tip 5 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 27.7. As we touched upon in last weeks predictions, anecdotally it feels that this time of year is tricky to tip as many teams appear to have different agendas. [Read More]

Round 20 Results

For the second weekend in a row, the ELO model has done well with its predictions albeit without being very accurate. Round 20 saw the ELO model tip a total of 7 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 34.7. The two main misses for tipping were considered upset wins. The first one was the Friday night clash between Richmond and Collingwood. Our model gave the Pies the slight edge at 52% however Richmond were able to overcome the Deledio effect, winning against expectation without the star. [Read More]

Round 19 - AFL ELO Results

I’ve now got around to doing a bit more analyses of my results each week and so have decided to split the AFL ELO model results and updated simulations into seperate posts. The simulation post will be out shortly! Round 19 saw our ELO model do very well, as we expected from our preview, with all teams favoured by our ELO model favoured by a significant margin. The only incorrect tip was the the upset win by Collingwood over West Coast, which our model attached a 41% probability to. [Read More]

Round 18 Results

Last weekend saw our ELO model have its worst week for the season, tipping at less than 50% to record 4 correct tips out on 9. It was also the 2nd worst round of the year for the Margin component of the predictions, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 36.9 points. In 4 matches last week, our had difficulty separating teams after the Home Ground Advantage was taken into account, giving the tipped winners less than a 55% chance of getting over the line. [Read More]

Round 17 Results

As the season starts to heat up, we are getting some interesting games in the context of the season, as noted last week by the super important Sydney v Hawthorn game. In combination with a really tight top 8, whenever two top 8 teams are matched up, my ELO model has difficulty separating them. Nonetheless, we continued on with an OK 6 out of 9 games tipped correctly, with a respectable MAE of 22. [Read More]

Round 16 Results

For our first week out of the bye rounds and back to a full 9 games, my ELO model had a pretty good week, tipping 7 out 9 with an MAE of 24. The incorrect tips were GWS losing to Collingwood (a 29% chance)e and Geelong losing to Sydney (a 23% chance). The seas total is up to 99 tips from 135 games (73%) and an MAE 29.0. Those two upset losses saw the biggest change in ELO ratings for the round with Geelong losing 21 ratings points (giving them to Sydney) and GWS losing 26 rating points (giving them to Collingwood). [Read More]