As we enter the final round of the year, our ELO model had a pretty good round. Last week we tipped 7 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 20.4, which was our best MAPE outside of the bye rounds for the year. Our two misses were Richmond losing out to St Kilda and Melbourne missing against Carlton.
I must admit to not catching a lot of footy over the weekend due to having Olympics fever, which is probably good considering my ELO model had a tough round this week! With a few upsets, and 5 games decided by a goal or less, we struggled picking winners this week. The model managed to tip 5 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 27.7.
For the second weekend in a row, the ELO model has done well with its predictions albeit without being very accurate. Round 20 saw the ELO model tip a total of 7 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 34.7.