Round 15 Results

My ELO model has completed a clean sweep of 4 out 6 tips for the bye rounds on the weekend, incorrectly tipping against Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs. It was far and away the best round of the year for margin tipping, with an MAE of 16.5! That gives us a season total of 92 tips from 120 games (73%) and an MAE that has tipped under 30, sitting at 29. [Read More]

Round 14 Results

Continuing through the bye rounds, this week saw my ELO model managed to another 4 of the 6 games tipped correctly, with an MAE of 24.8. The two games we got wrong were the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Freo (we gave Freo a slight edge at 53%), and the enthralling upset win of St Kilda over Geelong. We didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our ratings this week in the top 8 teams, apart from Adelaide extending their lead at the top of the ratings system. [Read More]

Round 13 Results

The first bye round of the year saw my ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 correctly tip 4 of the 6 games with an MAE of 25.5. Like last week - the model struggled to separate the teams in both matches that it got wrong (Bulldogs v Geelong and Freo v Port Adelaide). The main mover in our ELO ratings were Geelong, after their dominating win over the Bulldogs, lifting them by 28 rating points and jumping into a clear 3rd spot on the ELO ladder. [Read More]

Round 12 Results

My ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 with a respectable 7 out of 9 tips and an MAE of 31.2. The two games it incorrectly tipped (Port v Bulldogs and WCE v Adelaide) were both within the margin of HGA in terms of tightness, so not unexpected results. The season total percentage is now creeping up with 80 correct tips (74.1%) and an MAE of 30. [Read More]

Round 11 Results

After a few weeks struggling to juggle and balance various commitments, I think I’ve finally got into enough of a routine and automated enough of my R scripts that I can release my ELO ratings update early in the week and put my predictions out later in the week! I’ll also hope to write a bit more interesting post mid-week such as my one on the Tackle Machine, or the Round 7 rule. [Read More]