In reviewing the data this week, I found a small bug in my “Upcoming Round Prediction script” whereby I was giving the HGA to the away team, thus overestimating the performance of the Away Team by roughly 16 points. All fixed now, and it wasn’t a bug in my bigger Historical script, or the one I use to update ELO rankings, but it would have improved individual Round tips by 2 in Week six and 2 in Week seven! Annoying. ↩
I promise I have started writing the methodology ↩
After putting tips out for the first time last week, I actually didn’t get to watch a single game due to being on holiday for the (at least in Queensland) long weekend without phone, internet or TV reception! After a nervous wait, I came back to see my model had a tough weekend – tipping 5 out of 9 with a mean absolute error in the margin of a hefty 50 points. Granted there were a few unexpected results but not what I had envisaged stuck in my log cabin all weekend!
Nonetheless, my season results for the ELO model (understanding I haven’t made these public yet) sit at 39 out 54 (72%) with a mean absolute error in the margin of 33 points. I’m again hoping to turn this into a nice table or chart as the season progresses.
It is with some trepidation then that I release my round 7 predictions, based on my ELO predictions1.
Here are our current ELO ratings
I endeavour to write up my methodology over the weekend! ↩
While I was hoping to have this site up and running before the season started, my PhD thesis and then full time work got in the way.
Nonetheless, its not too late to start posting predictions! I plan to maybe go back and revisit a priori how my model would have performed in the early rounds but that’s for a later time. You can at least check in on my pre-season rankings.
Here are my ELO predictions for Round 6. At some stage, I plan to turn this into an interactive page, similar to the FiveThirtyEight ones but for now, I’ll just post some predictions.
In future weeks I may do a game by game summary but for now, I’ll make some general observations.
There appear to be a bunch of close games this weekend, with NM v WB, Rich v PA and Carl v Ess all seemingly tough to pick.