Round 8 Predictions

Last weekend I managed to tip 6 out of 9, with an MAE of 31.2. A bit better than the first week but also not as well as my models historical performance 1

Here are my Round 8 predictions, based on my ELO predictions 2. I wrote about how there is a big gap currently in my ratings between the 8th placed North Melbourne and the 9th placed Port Adelaide. Interestingly this week, apart from the Friday night matchup between Adelaide and Geelong, the other top 8 teams in my rankings are all playing against teams below them. My ELO ratings do reward ‘better than expected’ performances, so it doesn’t necessarily mean that if each of those teams wins then the gap will widen, but it is an interesting quirk nonetheless.

ELOpreR8

round8

And finally, I published yesterday my rest of season simulations, but here are those tables for reference here.

finalR7to23_2016C

Notes:

  1. In reviewing the data this week, I found a small bug in my “Upcoming Round Prediction script” whereby I was giving the HGA to the away team, thus overestimating the performance of the Away Team by roughly 16 points. All fixed now, and it wasn’t a bug in my bigger Historical script, or the one I use to update ELO rankings, but it would have improved individual Round tips by 2 in Week six and 2 in Week seven! Annoying.
  2. I promise I have started writing the methodology

Round 7 predictions

After putting tips out for the first time last week, I actually didn’t get to watch a single game due to being on holiday for the (at least in Queensland) long weekend without phone, internet or TV reception! After a nervous wait, I came back to see my model had a tough weekend – tipping 5 out of 9 with a mean absolute error in the margin of a hefty 50 points. Granted there were a few unexpected results but not what I had envisaged stuck in my log cabin all weekend!

Nonetheless, my season results for the ELO model (understanding I haven’t made these public yet) sit at 39 out 54 (72%) with a mean absolute error in the margin of 33 points. I’m again hoping to turn this into a nice table or chart as the season progresses.

It is with some trepidation then that I release my round 7 predictions, based on my ELO predictions 1.

round7

Here are our current ELO ratings

ELOpreR7

Notes:

  1. I endeavour to write up my methodology over the weekend!

Round 6 Predictions

While I was hoping to have this site up and running before the season started, my PhD thesis and then full time work got in the way.

Nonetheless, its not too late to start posting predictions! I plan to maybe go back and revisit a priori how my model would have performed in the early rounds but that’s for a later time. You can at least check in on my pre-season rankings.

Here are my ELO predictions for Round 6. At some stage, I plan to turn this into an interactive page, similar to the FiveThirtyEight ones but for now, I’ll just post some predictions.

Probability and Margins for each game in round 6, 2016
Probability and Margins for each game in round 6, 2016

In future weeks I may do a game by game summary but for now, I’ll make some general observations.

  • There appear to be a bunch of close games this weekend, with NM v WB, Rich v PA and Carl v Ess all seemingly tough to pick.
  • I’ve written about Freo’s start to the year being so bad – things aren’t looking great for turning that around against an in form Adelaide
  • I’m not sure why my model is predicting such a big win for Hawthorn but it will be interesting to see how that one pans out

I should also note that I’m putting both my Margin and Probability predictions into the Monash tipping competition (full disclosure, there are no prizes). I’ll update on how they are going later on.