Round 7 – Is something Brewing in South Australia?

The Giants reign at the top of our ratings ladder was short lived, despite a hard fought win against the Bulldogs. The Crows jump into top spot this week while Port look like they are emerging from the pack. Is something brewing in Adelaide?

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Round 6 predictions

Another week down and some more surprising results in a super interesting season! The Hawks managed to hold their slide for now and peak back above ‘average’ while the other two sliding giants in North and Sydney continued to fall. Speaking of the Giants, they’ve managed to climb to the top of our ELO ratings! Check out this weeks ratings and tips below.

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Round 3 predictions – showdown time

Onwards and upwards! Round 2 was a much better round for our ELO Rating system, correctly tipping 8 of the 9 games. I’ve got plans to get a page together that shows the progress of the tips throughout the year. Can we keep above 70% with an MAE below 30, as we scraped in last year? Here’s hoping.

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Round 2 Predictions – the falling champs

For those that followed this blog last year, you’ll remember that Thursday night games are the bane of my existence! It seems the new season has not changed that – while I did get my predictions up early in the week, my weekly preview post is, as always, late! Nonetheless, here we are.

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Round 1 predictions – A new season!

After enjoying a good off-season and enjoying the AFL Women’s league, the AFL Men’s season is back! We will be running our ELO ratings again this year. For those who need a refresher, follow the links below.

ELO Rating system | Simulating the season | A history of the VFL/AFL plusSixOne ELO ratings

This year, I’ll be changing things a little to have a central place for all ratings, tips and simulations. You can find that page here. Make sure you go and check them out and hit me up on Twitter with any questions. These are also going onto the fantastic Squiggle site where they will be combined and compared to some other way more credentialed predictors! It should be fun to see how that pans out.


For those who are used to my normal tips – I’ll include them below.

(edit: The original version of this had slightly incorrect numbers for the Margin. Fixed Thursday night (Richmond changed from 9 points to 3 points so didn’t help!))

I won’t be doing as many game reviews this year – planning to let the numbers do the talking a little more and focus on other types of analyses.

There does look to be some pretty tight games (or at least, hard to predict) in the round – probably headlined by GWS v Adelaide. Both sit near the top of our ELO ratings (and did for most of last year) so we are finding it hard to split. While at other ends of the spectrum – we are also finding it hard to split the St Kilda and Melbourne game. Both teams are seemingly on the up so it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

A review of my AFL ELO model’s 2016 season

I introduced my ELO ratings last year slightly after the start of the season. While my main motivation was to implement a system that allowed for more objective team ratingsthat allows for some interesting comparisons and analyses of team performance[Ref]More to come on this![/ref], it is worth doing a review of the predictive performance of the system before we start this season. My model started the season with a somewhat arbitrary goal of tipping above 70% and keeping our mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) below 30.

So how did our model go?

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Simulating the 2017 AFL Mens season: Pre-season edition!

As I’ve indicated previously, I’ve finally cleared some time to get back into blogging! Sparked largely by a tweet from the fantastic The Arc blog, I’ve got some very preliminary season simulations together.

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