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Round 18 Results

Last weekend saw our ELO model have its worst week for the season, tipping at less than 50% to record 4 correct tips out on 9. It was also the 2nd worst round of the year for the Margin component of the predictions, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 36.9 points. In 4 matches last week, our had difficulty separating teams after the Home Ground Advantage was taken into account, giving the tipped winners less than a 55% chance of getting over the line. [Read More]

Round 18 Predictions

Collingwood v North Melbourne, Fri 7:50pm Etihad Stadium We’ve talked for a while about how tight the top 8 is, meaning every game the top 8 play in is important. Interestingly this round, we actually only see two top 8 teams play each other - our likely match of the round in Geelong v Adelaide. [Read More]

Round 17 Results

As the season starts to heat up, we are getting some interesting games in the context of the season, as noted last week by the super important Sydney v Hawthorn game. In combination with a really tight top 8, whenever two top 8 teams are matched up, my ELO model has difficulty separating them. Nonetheless, we continued on with an OK 6 out of 9 games tipped correctly, with a respectable MAE of 22. [Read More]

Round 17 Predictions

Stupid Thursday game caught me out again. Will update when I get a chance. UPDATE I’ve now added in the match importance ratings for each game. By far the most important game was the Thursday night epic between Hawthorn and Sydney. I’ll write a bit more about that in the review but that match had approximately a 40 percentage point change in top 4 chances for each team. The next most important involves Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, the two sides sitting in 8th and 9th. [Read More]

Round 16 Results

For our first week out of the bye rounds and back to a full 9 games, my ELO model had a pretty good week, tipping 7 out 9 with an MAE of 24. The incorrect tips were GWS losing to Collingwood (a 29% chance)e and Geelong losing to Sydney (a 23% chance). The seas total is up to 99 tips from 135 games (73%) and an MAE 29.0. Those two upset losses saw the biggest change in ELO ratings for the round with Geelong losing 21 ratings points (giving them to Sydney) and GWS losing 26 rating points (giving them to Collingwood). [Read More]

Round 16 Predictions

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, Thurs 7:20pm Adelaide Oval Geelong v Sydney, Fri 7:50pm Skilled Stadium WCE v NM, Sun 1:20pm Domain Stadium As our ELO model suggests, the top 8 is super tight. In fact, our simulations have a really tough time separating out clear favourites in our top 8 race. Data from The Arc, suggests that this is the tightest race we’ve ever had at this stage of the year. [Read More]

Round 15 Results

My ELO model has completed a clean sweep of 4 out 6 tips for the bye rounds on the weekend, incorrectly tipping against Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs. It was far and away the best round of the year for margin tipping, with an MAE of 16.5! That gives us a season total of 92 tips from 120 games (73%) and an MAE that has tipped under 30, sitting at 29. [Read More]

Round 15 Predictions

I’ve been caught out by the Thursday game so I won’t have a chance to write a preview until tomorrow. Here are the predictions anyway! UPDATE: So I’ve got around to taking a bit of a closer look at this rounds matches. Finally we reach our last bye round - I know I’m looking forward to getting to a full round of matches. There are a few tight matches according to our ELO model, however the tight matches all appear pretty meaningless according to our Match Importance metric. [Read More]

Round 14 Results

Continuing through the bye rounds, this week saw my ELO model managed to another 4 of the 6 games tipped correctly, with an MAE of 24.8. The two games we got wrong were the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Freo (we gave Freo a slight edge at 53%), and the enthralling upset win of St Kilda over Geelong. We didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our ratings this week in the top 8 teams, apart from Adelaide extending their lead at the top of the ratings system. [Read More]

Round 14 Predictions

Adelaide v North Melbourne, Thurs 7:20pm Adelaide Oval Collingwood v Fremantle, Fri 7:30pm MCG Our next bye round, subjectively, doesn’t look great on paper. Only the Collingwood v Freo match is considered tight by our ELO model, however it is fairly insignificant as measured by our Match Importance metric. The remaining matches, despite having some significance on the relevant team finishing positions, look fairly one sided. [Read More]