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Round 13 Results

The first bye round of the year saw my ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 correctly tip 4 of the 6 games with an MAE of 25.5. Like last week - the model struggled to separate the teams in both matches that it got wrong (Bulldogs v Geelong and Freo v Port Adelaide). The main mover in our ELO ratings were Geelong, after their dominating win over the Bulldogs, lifting them by 28 rating points and jumping into a clear 3rd spot on the ELO ladder. [Read More]

Round 13 Predictions

North Melbourne v Hawthorn, Fri 7:40pm Etihad Stadium Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Sat 3:35pm Domain Stadium Bulldogs v Geelong, Sat 7:25pm Edihad Stadium The first bye round of the year presents us with two groups of games - coin flip’s in the North/Hawks, Freo/Port and Bulldogs/Geelong games, while the others the ELO model expects to be relative blowouts. [Read More]

Beyond the 8 point game - estimating match importance in the AFL

As I was watching an enthralling match between Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide over the weekend, there was a lot of discussion about how important the match was - the Bulldogs needed to win to cement their spot in the top 8, while Port needed to win to have any chance of jumping up. It’s also not uncommon for commentators to discuss the notion of an “8 point game”, typically when two teams close on the ladder play each other. [Read More]

Round 12 Results

My ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 with a respectable 7 out of 9 tips and an MAE of 31.2. The two games it incorrectly tipped (Port v Bulldogs and WCE v Adelaide) were both within the margin of HGA in terms of tightness, so not unexpected results. The season total percentage is now creeping up with 80 correct tips (74.1%) and an MAE of 30. [Read More]

Round 12 Predictions

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Sat 1:30pm Adelaide Oval Geelong v North Melbourne, Sat 7:25pm Etihad Stadium West Coast v Adelaide, Sat 7:40pm Domain Stadium GWS v Sydney, Sun 4:40pm Spotless Stadium Last week was a great week for our model, tipping all 9 games correctly! Onto this weeks set of games and it looks like a tough round to tip! [Read More]

Round 11 Results

After a few weeks struggling to juggle and balance various commitments, I think I’ve finally got into enough of a routine and automated enough of my R scripts that I can release my ELO ratings update early in the week and put my predictions out later in the week! I’ll also hope to write a bit more interesting post mid-week such as my one on the Tackle Machine, or the Round 7 rule. [Read More]

Pre Round 11 Ratings

The congestion at the top of our ELO rankings still remains, although ‘the challengers’ to the top 4 may be slightly sorting themselves out. Only 9 rating points separate the top team (Hawthorn, still!) and our 4th team (tied between WCE and Adelaide) which is within the Home Ground Advantage we apply to the home team of 30 rankings points. After that, Geelong is in a bit of freefall, losing 45 ratings points (roughly the equivalent of a margin of 10 points) and 6 spots in our ranking system in the last 2 weeks! [Read More]

Round 11 Predictions

I’ve separated out the simulations and ratings update into another post and I’ll just focus on this weeks games here. Last week gave my ELO model a 4-peat of 6 out 9 tipping weeks. There were quite a few close tips this week, with an MAE of 23, bringing our season total to 64 (71%) with an MAE of 30.6. To this weeks games, we see some tight matchups. Concretely, Geelong v GWS gives Geelong a slight edge with Home Ground Advantage. [Read More]

Round 10 Predictions

For the third week in a row, my ELO model managed 6 correct tips, with an MAE of 29, bringing our season total to 58 (72%) with an MAE of 31.5. This upcoming weekend shows us a few close matches that are difficult to call. Our current ELO rankings show us that there is more congestion at the top of the ladder, with a clump of 6 teams forming, with the Bulldogs and North (still! [Read More]

My ELO rating system explained

Typical ELO Actual Result Predicted Result Special K Iterating the ratings Results! I’ve been wanting to try my hand at building a rating system to predict AFL results for a while. I’ve decided to begin with a relatively simple ELO rating system. The ELO rating system was originally developed to rank chess players, but more recently has been used for a lot of sports, including AFL, to assess the relative strengths of teams within a competition. [Read More]