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Round 7 predictions

After putting tips out for the first time last week, I actually didn’t get to watch a single game due to being on holiday for the (at least in Queensland) long weekend without phone, internet or TV reception! After a nervous wait, I came back to see my model had a tough weekend - tipping 5 out of 9 with a mean absolute error in the margin of a hefty 50 points. [Read More]

The round 7 rule?

In an article over the weekend, Rohan Connolly from The Age asked if the finals teams were already set by the end of round 7. He suggested that Round 7 appeared to be some kind of milestone. Call it the round seven rule if you like, but in a nutshell, if a team wasn't already in the top eight by then, it was almost certainly not going to be there when the finals began four months later. [Read More]

Round 6 Predictions

While I was hoping to have this site up and running before the season started, my PhD thesis and then full time work got in the way. Nonetheless, its not too late to start posting predictions! I plan to maybe go back and revisit a priori how my model would have performed in the early rounds but that’s for a later time. You can at least check in on my pre-season rankings. [Read More]

Annus horribilis Fremantle

By his own words, Ross Lyons team have are having an Annus Horribilis[ref]much to my dismay, that word doesn’t have the low brow meaning I had hoped - instead it means “horrible year”)[/ref]. It doesn’t take a whole lot of in depth data to know that starting the year with 0 wins and 5 losses is bad, and there is no shortage of stories describing just how bad that is. [Read More]

Start of 2016 season AFL ELO ratings

Throughout the year, I’m hoping to use my ELO ratings system to predict results and discuss various stories that emerge in the AFL season. I’ve described the model in a fair bit of detail elsewhere on the site but basically, an ELO rating system allows to compare the relative ‘skill’ of two teams and, using the difference in ratings, predict an outcome. It is nice due to its simplicity - the data it uses is the match margin and which team is at home, ignoring other information such as players, coaches, weather and so on. [Read More]

The First (last) Post!

Each year, as I watch the traditional Anzac day clash, I am often hit by an overwhelming sense of pointlessness in my chosen passion. There isn’t a greater example of why Sport really isn’t that important in the scheme of things than hosting a game on the day we remember fallen soldiers. As someone who consumes a lot of Sport, is employed in the industry and (as of this post) has started a blog exploring the vagaries of data in sport, I often battle with this feeling. [Read More]