Welcome Back

Hello! It’s been quite a while since there was any content on the site - my last post was before the grand final. However, I have been doing a bit of work behind the scenes as you may notice. I thought I would give a quick update on a few things about the blog and what you can look forward to this year. Blog migration As you may have noticed, my blog is looking a little funky. [Read More]

Grand Final Time!

Onto our last game of the season and what a pretty awesome matchup! The craziness that is the Tiger train marched on while the Crows, most peoples ‘best team all year’ tries to spoil the Richmondy army. Last year I wrote a little preview that showed the path to the grand final of each time - I’ve dug up that old code and shown the same below. Happy reading! The path to glory We can see below that both teams have taken different paths this year. [Read More]

Preliminary Finals - quick tips

No preview from me this weekend unfortunately guys. Here are my tips below - all the best to fans from all 4 teams!

Finals Round 2 - the Tiger lid?

A super quick preview this week. Can Sydney continue their run? What about West Coast fairytale? Read our ratings to find out! Ratings Our top 2 remained unchanged after expected wins last week. Sydney remains our highest rated team but need to win 3 away games from here. Richmond shot up our rankings with their big win - jumping into the top 3 and displacing Geelong, who drop down to 6th. [Read More]

Finals Week 1 - a natural order

We are finally around to the first week of finals, in what is talked about as a fairly open finals race. Read on to find out what we are predicting this week and for the rest of the finals series! Ratings Firstly to our final ratings for the regular season interestingly, our top 8 rated teams all made finals! Sydney surged ahead after Adelaide’s dead rubber loss to WCE. Those two teams were clear of a pretty well ordered top 8 - the only teams whose finishing position on the ladder didn’t match their rating position is Richmond and Sydney. [Read More]

Round 23 - falling into place

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to publish a preview post this week. Hopefully anyone needing my tips or projections found them over here (they are updated each Monday).

For those who rely on this blog post, here are the predictions for the week! Happy final round!

Round 22 - pain in the neck no more

Onto our penultimate round! There looks to be some pretty important and close games this week as the finals race is still wide open. Also, for those following along - I finally got my neck brace off today after 7 weeks! There is still a fair bit of rehab to to go but looks like I’m in the clear regarding long term issues. Thanks for all the messages of support I’ve received. [Read More]

Round 21 - bring back match importance

Getting to the business end of the season. There are still quite a few spots open for finals so this shapes as a pretty important round. I’ve included some match importance ratings this week so read on to find out which games matter! Match Importance I posted our simulations earlier in the week - find them here - but it’s safe to say there are some important matchups this week. Last year, I introduce the idea of match importance and I’ll bring it back this week. [Read More]

Post round 20 simulations

I haven’t had the time to regularly post stand alone simulation posts this year but given the tightness in the season, I thought I would start for these final few weeks. Read on to see where your team falls in our finals simulations! Ratings I’ll start firstly with our current ratings. We can see that Adelaide and Sydney are clearly the big leaders here - opening up a considerable gap to 3rd. [Read More]

Round 20 - flip of the coin

I’m stuck in an airport without my laptop so this preview will be super short I’m sorry! As always, the tips, simulations and ratings live in the link on the side bar. It was one of the hardest rounds my model has seen. It was unable to pick a winner in tonight’s match, as well as the North v Collingwood Game. Four other games also give the favoured team less than a 6 pointadvantage . [Read More]