AFL Mens Round 17 preview

Whoops. Missed Thursday again. Here is a quick preview for 8/9ths of Round 17! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings It’s certainly bunching at the top. With my new algorithm that is going to happen naturally due the late season games adjusting less than early season games. Nonetheless, you can clearly see the big divide after Hawthorn. Also it’s hard to seperate the top 3. [Read More]

AFL Mens Round 16 preview

Here we are for another damn Thursday night game. I actually quite like them except that I never have time to write my preview! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings After my recent update to the ratings system where my k-value (how much ELO ratings change after a game) is reducing as the season goes by, our ratings are somewhat stable. We still have a big gap between our top 11 and bottom 6, with Essendon sitting somewhere in between. [Read More]

AFL Mens - Round 14 Preview

So Thursday night again. Bye week again. Breif preview again! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings The main thing that jumps out from our ratings is how two tiered it looks - from Hawthorn up, the ratings are pretty tight between teams and not much separates each team. Also - Geelong jumped up into our tp rank last week, joining Sydney, Richmond and West Coast as the teams to beat. [Read More]

AFLM - Round 13 preview

Those who have been following the blog for a while know that Thursday games always catch me out and this week is no exception! No update for me but you can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. I’ve also got my plots below, presented without comment. As a separate note - I’ve decided to enter the World Cup Datathon. You can see my posts below More updates coming. [Read More]

Round 12 - AFL Mens Preview

Super quick update this week sorry guys. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Richmond take top spot back off Melbourne this week. The Dees do keep a handy gap to 3rd spot though, where we find it tough to split West Coast, Sydney and Geelong. Simulations Richmond have firmed back ahead of West Coast as our favourite for the minor premiership. [Read More]

Round 11 AFL Mens Preview

Round 11 is on us - read on for an overview of the weekend ahead. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Don’t look now but we have a new ELO leader! The Demons, on the back of three huge weeks have jumped the competition to be in top spot. Given this, I wondered when was the last time they reached these heights? [Read More]

Round 10 AFLM Preview

A pretty brief preview this week - I’m at the airport on my way to Melbourne for the weekend. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Again, Richmond are the big talking points of the week. However, with their big loss to WCE, it’s not for the same reasons as the last few. That loss brings them back to the chasing pack and parachutes the Eagles up to 2nd spot! [Read More]

Round 9 - AFL Mens Predictions

On-wards and upwards to round 9! Read on to see my round preview. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Not a whole lot of movement at the pointy end of the ratings - Richmond remain clear favorites, followed by a close group of Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide. Those three are now joined by West Coast, who’s big win last week propelled them up into that chasing pack. [Read More]

Round 8 - AFL Mens Predictions

As is the norm, here is a last minute update late on Friday afternoon! You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Richmond extends their dominance at the top of the ratings. They now sit 40 rating points clear of 2nd place Geelong, which equates to about 8 points. While that may not seem huge, it is about the same as the long term average margin of home teams in the AFL. [Read More]

Round 7 - AFL Mens Preview

On the road again this weekend but I’ll do my best to give a quick update! You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve looked in depth at the ratings. In that time, as has widely been reported, Richmond have jumped out into clear air in the lead. They are clearly the strongest team in the competition at this point of the year. [Read More]