Finals Week 1 - a natural order

We are finally around to the first week of finals, in what is talked about as a fairly open finals race. Read on to find out what we are predicting this week and for the rest of the finals series! Ratings Firstly to our final ratings for the regular season interestingly, our top 8 rated teams all made finals! Sydney surged ahead after Adelaide’s dead rubber loss to WCE. Those two teams were clear of a pretty well ordered top 8 - the only teams whose finishing position on the ladder didn’t match their rating position is Richmond and Sydney. [Read More]

Round 23 - falling into place

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to publish a preview post this week. Hopefully anyone needing my tips or projections found them over here (they are updated each Monday).

For those who rely on this blog post, here are the predictions for the week! Happy final round!

Round 19 - finals simulations are hot out the oven!

The Crows have emerged as big flag favourites in our model’s eyes. Have a read below for our first set of finals simulations for the season! Ratings After chopping and changing a fair bit over the season, Adelaide finally holds onto top stop with a good (yet expected) win against fellow top 4 rated team, Geelong. Sydney continues to impress while GWS and Geelong are rapidly falling back to a relatively weak pack. [Read More]

Round 17 - top of the table

For those following along - I’m out of Hospital! Following my neck injury, I’m back home and now working again which is good. Have to be in a neck brace for another 5 weeks and follow up with some potential surgery but it’s good to be past the worst of it. I haven’t had a whole lot of time for the blog this week but read on for a bit of a preview! [Read More]

Round 14 - Are the Demons rising from hell?

I’m going to stop commenting on how annoying Thursday football is for my blog (I actually quite like it in general). This week throws up some interesting games - read on to see our preview! Ratings Adelaide and GWS, with their byes, remain on top of our rankings[ref]My chart is showing teams last result rather than last round which is a bit misleading. It was a bit too much for me to fix for the bye rounds, which are now over anyway. [Read More]

Round 11 - I made Thursday night!

After a solid week (that reminds me, I’ve got to get a ‘results’ page up!), we didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our team ratings. Check out our weekly preview below! Ratings After some big movements last week, we didn’t see a whole lot of adjustment this week (which means our model is doing pretty well!). A little bit of shuffling down the bottom of the ladder as those teams (Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast and Freo) remain inconsistent. [Read More]

Round 10 - can Port continue their climb?

We are back this week after an unexpected week off last week! Check out our preview for round 10. Ratings Firstly, lets look at our ratings after an interesting round 9. We can see some serious movement for a few teams. Port continues on their merry ways with a big win over a (potentially unprepared?) Gold Coast in China. Essendon’s big win over WCE meant that they jumped up 4 spots to move within striking distance of breaking through ‘average’ team barrier of 1500 ratings points. [Read More]

Finals Week 2

Following a cracking weekend of finals football, I haven’t had the time I’d like to get this weeks results and predictions up. I also did find out that my simulation of finals script, that I’d hurriedly written back in about round 13 actually couldn’t handle real finals data being thrown at it. Nonetheless, the simulations of the remainder of the finals series are in, and I’ll combine it with my predictions later on in this post! [Read More]

Round 20 Prediction - shuffling the pieces

Leading into the final month of the season, match simulations suggesting that the top 8 is basically set. In fact, the top 8 hasn’t changed since before Round 7. As we wrote about at the time, that isn’t all that surprising. Given that - we’d perhaps expect that the remaining games aren’t all that important, as measured by our match importance metric. However, since very little separates teams in our top 8, matches involving those teams are particular important this week! [Read More]

Round 18 Predictions

Collingwood v North Melbourne, Fri 7:50pm Etihad Stadium We’ve talked for a while about how tight the top 8 is, meaning every game the top 8 play in is important. Interestingly this round, we actually only see two top 8 teams play each other - our likely match of the round in Geelong v Adelaide. [Read More]