AFL Mens - Round 14 Preview

So Thursday night again. Bye week again. Breif preview again! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings The main thing that jumps out from our ratings is how two tiered it looks - from Hawthorn up, the ratings are pretty tight between teams and not much separates each team. Also - Geelong jumped up into our tp rank last week, joining Sydney, Richmond and West Coast as the teams to beat. [Read More]

Round 9 - AFL Mens Predictions

On-wards and upwards to round 9! Read on to see my round preview. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Not a whole lot of movement at the pointy end of the ratings - Richmond remain clear favorites, followed by a close group of Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide. Those three are now joined by West Coast, who’s big win last week propelled them up into that chasing pack. [Read More]

Round 8 - AFL Mens Predictions

As is the norm, here is a last minute update late on Friday afternoon! You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Richmond extends their dominance at the top of the ratings. They now sit 40 rating points clear of 2nd place Geelong, which equates to about 8 points. While that may not seem huge, it is about the same as the long term average margin of home teams in the AFL. [Read More]

Round 6 Preview

Unfortunately no big preview this week as I’m travelling. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result Fri, 27 Docklands Footscray Carlton 13 59.6% Footscray by 13 Sat, 28 Kardinia Park Geelong Sydney 12 58. [Read More]

Finals Week 1 - a natural order

We are finally around to the first week of finals, in what is talked about as a fairly open finals race. Read on to find out what we are predicting this week and for the rest of the finals series! Ratings Firstly to our final ratings for the regular season interestingly, our top 8 rated teams all made finals! Sydney surged ahead after Adelaide’s dead rubber loss to WCE. Those two teams were clear of a pretty well ordered top 8 - the only teams whose finishing position on the ladder didn’t match their rating position is Richmond and Sydney. [Read More]

Round 23 - falling into place

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to publish a preview post this week. Hopefully anyone needing my tips or projections found them over here (they are updated each Monday).

For those who rely on this blog post, here are the predictions for the week! Happy final round!

Round 19 - finals simulations are hot out the oven!

The Crows have emerged as big flag favourites in our model’s eyes. Have a read below for our first set of finals simulations for the season! Ratings After chopping and changing a fair bit over the season, Adelaide finally holds onto top stop with a good (yet expected) win against fellow top 4 rated team, Geelong. Sydney continues to impress while GWS and Geelong are rapidly falling back to a relatively weak pack. [Read More]

Round 17 - top of the table

For those following along - I’m out of Hospital! Following my neck injury, I’m back home and now working again which is good. Have to be in a neck brace for another 5 weeks and follow up with some potential surgery but it’s good to be past the worst of it. I haven’t had a whole lot of time for the blog this week but read on for a bit of a preview! [Read More]

Round 14 - Are the Demons rising from hell?

I’m going to stop commenting on how annoying Thursday football is for my blog (I actually quite like it in general). This week throws up some interesting games - read on to see our preview! Ratings Adelaide and GWS, with their byes, remain on top of our rankings[ref]My chart is showing teams last result rather than last round which is a bit misleading. It was a bit too much for me to fix for the bye rounds, which are now over anyway. [Read More]