Round 11 - I made Thursday night!

After a solid week (that reminds me, I’ve got to get a ‘results’ page up!), we didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our team ratings. Check out our weekly preview below! Ratings After some big movements last week, we didn’t see a whole lot of adjustment this week (which means our model is doing pretty well!). A little bit of shuffling down the bottom of the ladder as those teams (Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast and Freo) remain inconsistent. [Read More]

Round 10 - can Port continue their climb?

We are back this week after an unexpected week off last week! Check out our preview for round 10. Ratings Firstly, lets look at our ratings after an interesting round 9. We can see some serious movement for a few teams. Port continues on their merry ways with a big win over a (potentially unprepared?) Gold Coast in China. Essendon’s big win over WCE meant that they jumped up 4 spots to move within striking distance of breaking through ‘average’ team barrier of 1500 ratings points. [Read More]

Finals Week 2

Following a cracking weekend of finals football, I haven’t had the time I’d like to get this weeks results and predictions up. I also did find out that my simulation of finals script, that I’d hurriedly written back in about round 13 actually couldn’t handle real finals data being thrown at it. Nonetheless, the simulations of the remainder of the finals series are in, and I’ll combine it with my predictions later on in this post! [Read More]

Round 20 Prediction - shuffling the pieces

Leading into the final month of the season, match simulations suggesting that the top 8 is basically set. In fact, the top 8 hasn’t changed since before Round 7. As we wrote about at the time, that isn’t all that surprising. Given that - we’d perhaps expect that the remaining games aren’t all that important, as measured by our match importance metric. However, since very little separates teams in our top 8, matches involving those teams are particular important this week! [Read More]

Round 18 Predictions

We’ve talked for a while about how tight the top 8 is, meaning every game the top 8 play in is important. Interestingly this round, we actually only see two top 8 teams play each other - our likely match of the round in Geelong v Adelaide. Given that Adelaide are our top rated team according to our ELO model and that match has some big implications as measured by our match importance rating, it is setup to be a cracker. [Read More]

Round 17 Predictions

Stupid Thursday game caught me out again. Will update when I get a chance. UPDATE I’ve now added in the match importance ratings for each game. By far the most important game was the Thursday night epic between Hawthorn and Sydney. I’ll write a bit more about that in the review but that match had approximately a 40 percentage point change in top 4 chances for each team. The next most important involves Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, the two sides sitting in 8th and 9th. [Read More]

Round 16 Predictions

As our ELO model suggests, the top 8 is super tight. In fact, our simulations have a really tough time separating out clear favourites in our top 8 race. Data from The Arc, suggests that this is the tightest race we’ve ever had at this stage of the year. Considering that, anytime two top 8 teams play each other, its going to be important. [ ]( We’ve got 2 top 8 clashes this week in Sydney v Geelong and WCE v North, which have big implications for the respective finishing positions of those teams. [Read More]

Round 15 Predictions

I’ve been caught out by the Thursday game so I won’t have a chance to write a preview until tomorrow. Here are the predictions anyway! UPDATE: So I’ve got around to taking a bit of a closer look at this rounds matches. Finally we reach our last bye round - I know I’m looking forward to getting to a full round of matches. There are a few tight matches according to our ELO model, however the tight matches all appear pretty meaningless according to our Match Importance metric. [Read More]

Round 14 Predictions

Our next bye round, subjectively, doesn’t look great on paper. Only the Collingwood v Freo match is considered tight by our ELO model, however it is fairly insignificant as measured by our Match Importance metric. The remaining matches, despite having some significance on the relevant team finishing positions, look fairly one sided. Adelaide v North Melbourne, Thurs 7:20pm Adelaide Oval Probably the most interesting match of the round, and certainly with the biggest Match Importance rating, we see the top rated Crows favoured pretty heavily over the 7th ranked Kangaroos, particularly with the Home Ground Advantage. [Read More]

Round 13 Predictions

The first bye round of the year presents us with two groups of games - coin flip’s in the North/Hawks, Freo/Port and Bulldogs/Geelong games, while the others the ELO model expects to be relative blowouts. You’ll also notice that I’ve added ‘match importance’ to the table below, which you can read about in my recent blog post. I’ll summarise some of the important games below. North Melbourne v Hawthorn, Fri 7:40pm Etihad Stadium My model, as I keep harping on about, is still unimpressed by North Melbourne, rating them as the 8th best team and having them finish 7th on a (tightly packed) simulated season ladder. [Read More]