Welcome to 2019 season!

Round 4 AFLM Predictions

Hi team, See the tips for round 4 of the AFL Men’s comp below, as well as some simulation results. You can always receive my live, up to date tips here and my simulations here regardless of the timing or existance of this weekly post! And reach out on Twitter if you have any thoughts or questions. Enjoy and happy tipping :) Tips Day Venue Home. [Read More]

Round 3 AFLM Predictions

Hi team, See the tips for round 3 of the AFL Men’s comp below, as well as some simulation results. You can always receive my live, up to date tips here and my simulations here regardless of the timing or existance of this weekly post! And reach out on Twitter if you have any thoughts or questions. Enjoy and happy tipping :) Tips Day Venue Home. [Read More]

2019 Round 2 - AFLM predictions

Hi team. As I mentioned last week, I won’t be doing many posts other than updating my tips over the first part of the season. I still would like a post to go out so I’ll be scheduling these in for Friday afternoons (sorry Thursday games). You can always receive my live, up to date tips here and my simulations here regardless of the timing or existance of this weekly post! [Read More]

Season 2019 - AFLM preview of sorts

Hello world! For those of you looking for an in-depth preview of the 2019 AFL Men’s season, please look elsewhere (anyone in these cool links will do!). This year is going to be a quiet one from me on the blogging front. The usual suspects of work, living in a new city and my focus on improving the fitzRoy package will take up most of my time. Rest assured you’ll still get my weekly tips (always hosted here) and my simulations (likewise, always here). [Read More]

fitzRoy - 0.1.5 release

For those of you who’ve been following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve been working on an R package for AFL called fitzRoy with Rob from Analysis of AFL. Today we released a new version which has a much requested feature, so I’d figured a blog post was in order. You’ll have to reinstall fitzRoy to get the latest functions. We still aren’t on CRAN but you can use devtools to get it. [Read More]

AFL Mens Round 17 preview

Whoops. Missed Thursday again. Here is a quick preview for 8/9ths of Round 17! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings It’s certainly bunching at the top. With my new algorithm that is going to happen naturally due the late season games adjusting less than early season games. Nonetheless, you can clearly see the big divide after Hawthorn. Also it’s hard to seperate the top 3. [Read More]

AFL Mens Round 16 preview

Here we are for another damn Thursday night game. I actually quite like them except that I never have time to write my preview! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings After my recent update to the ratings system where my k-value (how much ELO ratings change after a game) is reducing as the season goes by, our ratings are somewhat stable. We still have a big gap between our top 11 and bottom 6, with Essendon sitting somewhere in between. [Read More]

AFL Mens - Round 14 Preview

So Thursday night again. Bye week again. Breif preview again! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings The main thing that jumps out from our ratings is how two tiered it looks - from Hawthorn up, the ratings are pretty tight between teams and not much separates each team. Also - Geelong jumped up into our tp rank last week, joining Sydney, Richmond and West Coast as the teams to beat. [Read More]

AFLM - Round 13 preview

Those who have been following the blog for a while know that Thursday games always catch me out and this week is no exception! No update for me but you can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. I’ve also got my plots below, presented without comment. As a separate note - I’ve decided to enter the World Cup Datathon. You can see my posts below More updates coming. [Read More]

World Cup Datathon - Part 3: Feature Engineering

In Part 1 and Part 2 of this series, I introduced the Betfair World Cup datathon and acquired some data. Now, let’s spend a bit of time exploring that data and creating some features! Feature Engineering is where the art comes into our modelling process. Given I don’t have a lot of domain knowledge here, I’ve done a bit of quick reading. Again - I’m not going to go into some advanced Soccer analytics like Expected Goal (XG) or any kind of network analysis - so I’ll simply use the match results, FIFA rankings and betfair data. [Read More]