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A pretty brief preview this week - I’m at the airport on my way to Melbourne for the weekend. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Again, Richmond are the big talking points of the week. However, with their big loss to WCE, it’s not for the same reasons as the last few. That loss brings them back to the chasing pack and parachutes the Eagles up to 2nd spot! [Read More]

On-wards and upwards to round 9! Read on to see my round preview. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Not a whole lot of movement at the pointy end of the ratings - Richmond remain clear favorites, followed by a close group of Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide. Those three are now joined by West Coast, who’s big win last week propelled them up into that chasing pack. [Read More]

As is the norm, here is a last minute update late on Friday afternoon! You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings Richmond extends their dominance at the top of the ratings. They now sit 40 rating points clear of 2nd place Geelong, which equates to about 8 points. While that may not seem huge, it is about the same as the long term average margin of home teams in the AFL. [Read More]

On the road again this weekend but I’ll do my best to give a quick update! You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Ratings It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve looked in depth at the ratings. In that time, as has widely been reported, Richmond have jumped out into clear air in the lead. They are clearly the strongest team in the competition at this point of the year. [Read More]

Unfortunately no big preview this week as I’m travelling. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle. Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result Fri, 27 Docklands Footscray Carlton 13 59.6% Footscray by 13 Sat, 28 Kardinia Park Geelong Sydney 12 58. [Read More]

After a pretty brutal Round 4, we saw some big movements in our ratings. That leads to some interesting matchups this week. Read on to see who our model is tipping! Also a quick reminder that you always find full ratings and current tips updated each Monday. Ratings and Simulations The big loser here was clearly Adelaide, after a shock, heavy loss to Collingwood. They dropped from pretty clear top rated team down to 4th. [Read More]

With round 3 done and dusted, are the top teams beginning to emerge? You can see the full ratings, results and tips here but see our current ratings and simulations below. Not a whole lot of movement at the top, with Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Richmond and Port remaining in the top tier of teams. These teams are all projected around 16 wins and ~80% chance of finals at this early stage, with Adelaide poking it’s nose out in front. [Read More]

The annual super long weekend of football that I always miss because I’m camping is upon us! After a few creaks and a bit of encouragement, I’ve managed to get the ELO model up and running for the new season, including my first set of simulations! A quick reminder that you can always find my Tips and Current Ratings and Simulations on these pages. I’ll aim to update these every Monday following a round if you need to see them before I blog! [Read More]

Hello! It’s been quite a while since there was any content on the site - my last post was before the grand final. However, I have been doing a bit of work behind the scenes as you may notice. I thought I would give a quick update on a few things about the blog and what you can look forward to this year. Blog migration As you may have noticed, my blog is looking a little funky. [Read More]

Onto our last game of the season and what a pretty awesome matchup! The craziness that is the Tiger train marched on while the Crows, most peoples ‘best team all year’ tries to spoil the Richmondy army. Last year I wrote a little preview that showed the path to the grand final of each time - I’ve dug up that old code and shown the same below. Happy reading! [Read More]