Front Page Content

plussixone is being rebuilt. Please bear with me as I migrate across :)

Round 20 ELO Simulations - almost set

ELO Ratings After seeing Hawthorn take back top stop in our ELO ratings, they’ve quickly lost that due to a relatively poor result against Carlton. The loss of 10 rating points, combined with Sydney’s much larger than expected win, sees those two teams sway places. Combined with Adelaide, these three teams have emerged ahead of the pack. In a distant second tier we see GWS and Geelong, who also swapped places this week. [Read More]

Round 19 Predictions - Last chance Saints

We are starting to end the pointy end of the season and we see probably the most important match for a contender for the top 8 in terms of keeping their season alive. A win or a loss for the Saints this week see’s a 40 percentage point swing in their top 8 chances! We also see a fairly wide gap in classes this week (both in terms of ELO ratings and ladder ratings). [Read More]

The Deledio Effect - can Richmond win without him?

After the weekend, in which Richmond lost handsomely to (a very good) Hawthorn side, the narrative trotted out by the football media again seemed to surround the idea that Brett Deledio didn’t play. Every time he doesn’t play and Richmond lose, we generally get given some cherry picked data about how many games Richmond has lost while he hasn’t played. While it may be the case that he is super important to Richmond, simply stating their win/loss record without him doesn’t show this. [Read More]

Round 18 Results

Last weekend saw our ELO model have its worst week for the season, tipping at less than 50% to record 4 correct tips out on 9. It was also the 2nd worst round of the year for the Margin component of the predictions, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 36.9 points. In 4 matches last week, our had difficulty separating teams after the Home Ground Advantage was taken into account, giving the tipped winners less than a 55% chance of getting over the line. [Read More]

Round 18 Predictions

Collingwood v North Melbourne, Fri 7:50pm Etihad Stadium We’ve talked for a while about how tight the top 8 is, meaning every game the top 8 play in is important. Interestingly this round, we actually only see two top 8 teams play each other - our likely match of the round in Geelong v Adelaide. [Read More]

Round 17 Results

As the season starts to heat up, we are getting some interesting games in the context of the season, as noted last week by the super important Sydney v Hawthorn game. In combination with a really tight top 8, whenever two top 8 teams are matched up, my ELO model has difficulty separating them. Nonetheless, we continued on with an OK 6 out of 9 games tipped correctly, with a respectable MAE of 22. [Read More]

Round 17 Predictions

Stupid Thursday game caught me out again. Will update when I get a chance. UPDATE I’ve now added in the match importance ratings for each game. By far the most important game was the Thursday night epic between Hawthorn and Sydney. I’ll write a bit more about that in the review but that match had approximately a 40 percentage point change in top 4 chances for each team. The next most important involves Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, the two sides sitting in 8th and 9th. [Read More]

Round 16 Results

For our first week out of the bye rounds and back to a full 9 games, my ELO model had a pretty good week, tipping 7 out 9 with an MAE of 24. The incorrect tips were GWS losing to Collingwood (a 29% chance)e and Geelong losing to Sydney (a 23% chance). The seas total is up to 99 tips from 135 games (73%) and an MAE 29.0. Those two upset losses saw the biggest change in ELO ratings for the round with Geelong losing 21 ratings points (giving them to Sydney) and GWS losing 26 rating points (giving them to Collingwood). [Read More]

Round 16 Predictions

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, Thurs 7:20pm Adelaide Oval Geelong v Sydney, Fri 7:50pm Skilled Stadium WCE v NM, Sun 1:20pm Domain Stadium As our ELO model suggests, the top 8 is super tight. In fact, our simulations have a really tough time separating out clear favourites in our top 8 race. Data from The Arc, suggests that this is the tightest race we’ve ever had at this stage of the year. [Read More]

Round 15 Results

My ELO model has completed a clean sweep of 4 out 6 tips for the bye rounds on the weekend, incorrectly tipping against Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs. It was far and away the best round of the year for margin tipping, with an MAE of 16.5! That gives us a season total of 92 tips from 120 games (73%) and an MAE that has tipped under 30, sitting at 29. [Read More]