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Round 15 Predictions

I’ve been caught out by the Thursday game so I won’t have a chance to write a preview until tomorrow. Here are the predictions anyway! UPDATE: So I’ve got around to taking a bit of a closer look at this rounds matches. Finally we reach our last bye round - I know I’m looking forward to getting to a full round of matches. There are a few tight matches according to our ELO model, however the tight matches all appear pretty meaningless according to our Match Importance metric. [Read More]

Round 14 Results

Continuing through the bye rounds, this week saw my ELO model managed to another 4 of the 6 games tipped correctly, with an MAE of 24.8. The two games we got wrong were the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Freo (we gave Freo a slight edge at 53%), and the enthralling upset win of St Kilda over Geelong. We didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our ratings this week in the top 8 teams, apart from Adelaide extending their lead at the top of the ratings system. [Read More]

Round 14 Predictions

Adelaide v North Melbourne, Thurs 7:20pm Adelaide Oval Collingwood v Fremantle, Fri 7:30pm MCG Our next bye round, subjectively, doesn’t look great on paper. Only the Collingwood v Freo match is considered tight by our ELO model, however it is fairly insignificant as measured by our Match Importance metric. The remaining matches, despite having some significance on the relevant team finishing positions, look fairly one sided. [Read More]

Round 13 Results

The first bye round of the year saw my ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 correctly tip 4 of the 6 games with an MAE of 25.5. Like last week - the model struggled to separate the teams in both matches that it got wrong (Bulldogs v Geelong and Freo v Port Adelaide). The main mover in our ELO ratings were Geelong, after their dominating win over the Bulldogs, lifting them by 28 rating points and jumping into a clear 3rd spot on the ELO ladder. [Read More]

Round 13 Predictions

North Melbourne v Hawthorn, Fri 7:40pm Etihad Stadium Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Sat 3:35pm Domain Stadium Bulldogs v Geelong, Sat 7:25pm Edihad Stadium The first bye round of the year presents us with two groups of games - coin flip’s in the North/Hawks, Freo/Port and Bulldogs/Geelong games, while the others the ELO model expects to be relative blowouts. [Read More]

Beyond the 8 point game - estimating match importance in the AFL

As I was watching an enthralling match between Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide over the weekend, there was a lot of discussion about how important the match was - the Bulldogs needed to win to cement their spot in the top 8, while Port needed to win to have any chance of jumping up. It’s also not uncommon for commentators to discuss the notion of an “8 point game”, typically when two teams close on the ladder play each other. [Read More]

Round 12 Results

My ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 with a respectable 7 out of 9 tips and an MAE of 31.2. The two games it incorrectly tipped (Port v Bulldogs and WCE v Adelaide) were both within the margin of HGA in terms of tightness, so not unexpected results. The season total percentage is now creeping up with 80 correct tips (74.1%) and an MAE of 30. [Read More]

Round 12 Predictions

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Sat 1:30pm Adelaide Oval Geelong v North Melbourne, Sat 7:25pm Etihad Stadium West Coast v Adelaide, Sat 7:40pm Domain Stadium GWS v Sydney, Sun 4:40pm Spotless Stadium Last week was a great week for our model, tipping all 9 games correctly! Onto this weeks set of games and it looks like a tough round to tip! [Read More]

Round 11 Results

After a few weeks struggling to juggle and balance various commitments, I think I’ve finally got into enough of a routine and automated enough of my R scripts that I can release my ELO ratings update early in the week and put my predictions out later in the week! I’ll also hope to write a bit more interesting post mid-week such as my one on the Tackle Machine, or the Round 7 rule. [Read More]

Pre Round 11 Ratings

The congestion at the top of our ELO rankings still remains, although ‘the challengers’ to the top 4 may be slightly sorting themselves out. Only 9 rating points separate the top team (Hawthorn, still!) and our 4th team (tied between WCE and Adelaide) which is within the Home Ground Advantage we apply to the home team of 30 rankings points. After that, Geelong is in a bit of freefall, losing 45 ratings points (roughly the equivalent of a margin of 10 points) and 6 spots in our ranking system in the last 2 weeks! [Read More]