Round 6 predictions

Another week down and some more surprising results in a super interesting season! The Hawks managed to hold their slide for now and peak back above ‘average’ while the other two sliding giants in North and Sydney continued to fall. Speaking of the Giants, they’ve managed to climb to the top of our ELO ratings! Check out this weeks ratings and tips below.

Current Tips and Predictions | Squiggle

Ratings update

As I mentioned, we now have a new leader in our Ratings, with the Giants leapfrogging Geelong into top spot after their big win over Sydney. Geelong, Adelaide and GWS are clearly a league above everyone else in our ratings. In fact - if you check out our simulations, you can see that no other team finishes minor premier more than 3% of the time suggesting that one of these teams will occupy top stop by year end.

Read More: ELO Rating system | Simulating the season | A history of the VFL/AFL plusSixOne ELO ratings


Onto our match previews and you can see below that there are some pretty lopsided matchups this week.

GWS v WB, Fri 7:50pm, UNSW.

Our newly formed rivals - the reining premiers travel up to the current premiership favourites in GWS. Both teams have been following a similar trajectory of building a group of young talent that has matured together. The Bulldogs haven’t actually been all that impressive this year, sitting in our second tier of teams on the ratings table. GWS on the other hand have just jumped into first spot and have been on an upward trajectory for a while. With their nominal home ground advantage, the model is pretty confident in the Giants._** GWS (63% chance) by 22 points. **_

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