AFL Mens - Round 14 Preview

So Thursday night again. Bye week again. Breif preview again! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle.

Ratings

The main thing that jumps out from our ratings is how two tiered it looks - from Hawthorn up, the ratings are pretty tight between teams and not much separates each team. Also - Geelong jumped up into our tp rank last week, joining Sydney, Richmond and West Coast as the teams to beat.

There is a big drop to Essendon and then a big more of a spread down from there.

I should also note that I made a slight adjustment to my K rating formula which basically says that we should react less as the season goes on (it’s a function of round number). I want to play around with that a bit over the off-season and will get a decent post up but yeah - just so you know!

Sims

The first thing we notice is that our finals race seems to have dropped to 10! This is a common thread amongst the modellers out there.

Obviously 10 doesn’t fit into 8. The biggest at risk teams seem to be Hawthorn, North and GWS at this stage. A lot of that depends on any “inter-contender” matchups, which unfortunately we don’t have many of this week…

Predictions

Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result
Thu, 21 Perth Stadium West Coast Essendon 24 72.0% West Coast by 24
Fri, 22 Adelaide Oval Port Adelaide Melbourne 8 57.2% Port Adelaide by 8
Sat, 23 York Park Hawthorn Gold Coast 24 71.9% Hawthorn by 24
Sat, 23 Gabba Brisbane Lions GWS -13 36.6% GWS by 13
Sat, 23 Docklands Footscray North Melbourne -11 39.0% North Melbourne by 11
Sun, 24 M.C.G. Collingwood Carlton 29 75.9% Collingwood by 29

Probably the best game of the round is Port and Melbourne - both in good form and knocking on the top tier of our rankings. Happy tipping!

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