The main thing that jumps out from our ratings is how two tiered it looks - from Hawthorn up, the ratings are pretty tight between teams and not much separates each team. Also - Geelong jumped up into our tp rank last week, joining Sydney, Richmond and West Coast as the teams to beat.
There is a big drop to Essendon and then a big more of a spread down from there.
I should also note that I made a slight adjustment to my K rating formula which basically says that we should react less as the season goes on (it’s a function of round number). I want to play around with that a bit over the off-season and will get a decent post up but yeah - just so you know!
The first thing we notice is that our finals race seems to have dropped to 10! This is a common thread amongst the modellers out there.
@TheArcFooty) June 18, 2018
Obviously 10 doesn’t fit into 8. The biggest at risk teams seem to be Hawthorn, North and GWS at this stage. A lot of that depends on any “inter-contender” matchups, which unfortunately we don’t have many of this week…
|Thu, 21||Perth Stadium||West Coast||Essendon||24||72.0%||West Coast by 24|
|Fri, 22||Adelaide Oval||Port Adelaide||Melbourne||8||57.2%||Port Adelaide by 8|
|Sat, 23||York Park||Hawthorn||Gold Coast||24||71.9%||Hawthorn by 24|
|Sat, 23||Gabba||Brisbane Lions||GWS||-13||36.6%||GWS by 13|
|Sat, 23||Docklands||Footscray||North Melbourne||-11||39.0%||North Melbourne by 11|
|Sun, 24||M.C.G.||Collingwood||Carlton||29||75.9%||Collingwood by 29|
Probably the best game of the round is Port and Melbourne - both in good form and knocking on the top tier of our rankings. Happy tipping!