AFL Mens Round 16 preview

Here we are for another damn Thursday night game. I actually quite like them except that I never have time to write my preview! Check out my full tips at this link or on Squiggle.

Ratings

After my recent update to the ratings system where my k-value (how much ELO ratings change after a game) is reducing as the season goes by, our ratings are somewhat stable. We still have a big gap between our top 11 and bottom 6, with Essendon sitting somewhere in between. Geelong still sits on top, just, over Richmond and Sydney. And there is very little separating those other 7 teams as they jostle for finals spots!

Sims

It was a strange weekend last weekend where all the finals hopefuls lost. That means that we didn’t get any clearer as to who is going to snatch those last finals spots. Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and Port all look pretty set, finishing in the finals in >90% of sims. Collingwood isn’t far behind.

The leaves, realistically, 6 teams with a decent shot of those last 3 spots. Hawks and Geelong, virtue of their soft draws and bank wins, respectively, are our best shots. Interestingly, the Hawks chances went up last week despite losing!

Melbourne, GWS and North, in that order, all sit around the 50% mark and seem most likely the be on of those two teams snatching that final 8 spot. In saying that, Adelaide kept their hopes alive with a win last week and the stumbling of the other teams.

Keep watching I guess!

Predictions

Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result
Thu, 05 S.C.G. Sydney Geelong 8 57.7% Sydney by 8
Fri, 06 M.C.G. Richmond Adelaide 13 62.6% Richmond by 13
Sat, 07 Gabba Brisbane Lions Carlton 15 63.7% Brisbane Lions by 15
Sat, 07 Adelaide Oval Port Adelaide St Kilda 29 75.7% Port Adelaide by 29
Sat, 07 Marrara Oval Melbourne Fremantle 21 69.2% Melbourne by 21
Sat, 07 Docklands Footscray Hawthorn -10 39.9% Hawthorn by 10
Sun, 08 Docklands North Melbourne Gold Coast 30 76.4% North Melbourne by 30
Sun, 08 Perth Stadium West Coast GWS 12 61.4% West Coast by 12
Sun, 08 M.C.G. Essendon Collingwood -7 43.0% Collingwood by 7

As per the last few rounds, it’s those contenders that we want to watch this weekend. Sydney and Geelong will be an important game mostly for Geelong to keep their nose in front of the the chasing pack. Adelaide probably needs to atone against Richmond to stay in double digit chances. Hawthorn needs to ensure that it wins games like this one while GWS simply must keep winning, despite their mounting injury list.

Happy tipping!

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