After my recent update to the ratings system where my k-value (how much ELO ratings change after a game) is reducing as the season goes by, our ratings are somewhat stable. We still have a big gap between our top 11 and bottom 6, with Essendon sitting somewhere in between. Geelong still sits on top, just, over Richmond and Sydney. And there is very little separating those other 7 teams as they jostle for finals spots!
It was a strange weekend last weekend where all the finals hopefuls lost. That means that we didn’t get any clearer as to who is going to snatch those last finals spots. Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and Port all look pretty set, finishing in the finals in >90% of sims. Collingwood isn’t far behind.
The leaves, realistically, 6 teams with a decent shot of those last 3 spots. Hawks and Geelong, virtue of their soft draws and bank wins, respectively, are our best shots. Interestingly, the Hawks chances went up last week despite losing!
Melbourne, GWS and North, in that order, all sit around the 50% mark and seem most likely the be on of those two teams snatching that final 8 spot. In saying that, Adelaide kept their hopes alive with a win last week and the stumbling of the other teams.
Keep watching I guess!
|Thu, 05||S.C.G.||Sydney||Geelong||8||57.7%||Sydney by 8|
|Fri, 06||M.C.G.||Richmond||Adelaide||13||62.6%||Richmond by 13|
|Sat, 07||Gabba||Brisbane Lions||Carlton||15||63.7%||Brisbane Lions by 15|
|Sat, 07||Adelaide Oval||Port Adelaide||St Kilda||29||75.7%||Port Adelaide by 29|
|Sat, 07||Marrara Oval||Melbourne||Fremantle||21||69.2%||Melbourne by 21|
|Sat, 07||Docklands||Footscray||Hawthorn||-10||39.9%||Hawthorn by 10|
|Sun, 08||Docklands||North Melbourne||Gold Coast||30||76.4%||North Melbourne by 30|
|Sun, 08||Perth Stadium||West Coast||GWS||12||61.4%||West Coast by 12|
|Sun, 08||M.C.G.||Essendon||Collingwood||-7||43.0%||Collingwood by 7|
As per the last few rounds, it’s those contenders that we want to watch this weekend. Sydney and Geelong will be an important game mostly for Geelong to keep their nose in front of the the chasing pack. Adelaide probably needs to atone against Richmond to stay in double digit chances. Hawthorn needs to ensure that it wins games like this one while GWS simply must keep winning, despite their mounting injury list.