Post round 20 simulations

I haven’t had the time to regularly post stand alone simulation posts this year but given the tightness in the season, I thought I would start for these final few weeks. Read on to see where your team falls in our finals simulations!


I’ll start firstly with our current ratings. We can see that Adelaide and Sydney are clearly the big leaders here - opening up a considerable gap to 3rd. That gap is about the equivalent of 12 points, above the long term ‘home team’ advantage that we use of 8 points. This means that we’d expect both Sydney and Adelaide to beat any other team regardless of venue which is pretty remarkable!

[ ]( of that, GWS and Geelong are clearly the next tier, as they have been most of the year. Our model of course is ignorant to the make up of each time so it can’t take into account things such as the Joel Selwood injury or the suspensions to Hawkins/Duncan.

Below those four, we have a pretty tight bunch of 6 ranging from slightly above average (Richmond at 1519) to Port at 1544. That range falls within our home team advantage so any matchup between those teams would essentially be given to the home team. It’s from these teams that we suspect the fight for final spots will come!


Onto the all important simulations.

Firstly, as we mentioned last week, Adelaide has locked up a finals birth. We also have essentially called that for GWS, Richmond and Geelong. It would take a miracle for any of those teams to miss out. Likewise, Sydney (98%) and Port (94%) fans should keep their September weekends free.

For those counting, we’ve got 6 teams with pretty high probabilities of making it. The last 2 spots are where it gets interesting! The reigning premiers in the Bulldogs, along with Melbourne and Essendon all make the finals around half of all simulations. A step down from that sees WCE (25%) and St Kilda (19%) still with a slight hope. Amazingly Hawthorn (2%) and Collingwood (1%) are still alive however it would require a pretty crazy run of events for that to happen!

Looking a bit further ahead to our finals simulations and we again find Adelaide difficult to look past. They make the Grand Final in 60% of all simulations! They then win two thirds of those to have a Premiership probability of 39%. Outside of that, Sydney is actually our next favourite, despite likely finishing outside the 8. They get up on grand final day in 17% of simulations. This is followed by GWS, Geelong and then quite a big gap to Richmond.

I’ll try and get some of our ‘importance’ ratings up this week. One suspects there will be some highly important games coming up!

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