The congestion at the top of our ELO rankings still remains, although ‘the challengers’ to the top 4 may be slightly sorting themselves out. Only 9 rating points separate the top team (Hawthorn, still!) and our 4th team (tied between WCE and Adelaide) which is within the Home Ground Advantage we apply to the home team of 30 rankings points. After that, Geelong is in a bit of freefall, losing 45 ratings points (roughly the equivalent of a margin of 10 points) and 6 spots in our ranking system in the last 2 weeks! North Melbourne continue to be unimpressed by our model despite their 10-1 record.
For another week, we get a new leader in our season simulations! Sydney has continued their impressive form this year and their current record, along with being the 2nd highest rated team, gives them the edge at the top of the ladder. In fact, they are become closer to being certainties to make the 8 and figure in the top 4 in 2 of every 3 simulations.
In our weekly discussion on the fight for a new member of the top 8, Port Adelaides win on the weekend keeps them in the race, with 34% of simulations seeing them entering the top 8. Nonetheless, the likelihood is that our top 8 is already set.