Round 1 predictions - A new season!

After enjoying a good off-season and enjoying the AFL Women’s league, the AFL Men’s season is back! We will be running our ELO ratings again this year. For those who need a refresher, follow the links below.

ELO Rating system | Simulating the season | A history of the VFL/AFL plusSixOne ELO ratings

This year, I’ll be changing things a little to have a central place for all ratings, tips and simulations. You can find that page here. Make sure you go and check them out and hit me up on Twitter with any questions. These are also going onto the fantastic Squiggle site where they will be combined and compared to some other way more credentialed predictors! It should be fun to see how that pans out.


For those who are used to my normal tips - I’ll include them below.

(edit: The original version of this had slightly incorrect numbers for the Margin. Fixed Thursday night (Richmond changed from 9 points to 3 points so didn’t help!))

I won’t be doing as many game reviews this year - planning to let the numbers do the talking a little more and focus on other types of analyses.

There does look to be some pretty tight games (or at least, hard to predict) in the round - probably headlined by GWS v Adelaide. Both sit near the top of our ELO ratings (and did for most of last year) so we are finding it hard to split. While at other ends of the spectrum - we are also finding it hard to split the St Kilda and Melbourne game. Both teams are seemingly on the up so it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

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