Round 10 AFLM Preview

A pretty brief preview this week - I’m at the airport on my way to Melbourne for the weekend. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle.

Ratings

Again, Richmond are the big talking points of the week. However, with their big loss to WCE, it’s not for the same reasons as the last few. That loss brings them back to the chasing pack and parachutes the Eagles up to 2nd spot! In fact, that chasing pack now just looks like one big group, with Geelong dropping off significantly and the resurgent Demons jumping into 5th.

Port and Collingwood lead the next group which involves some big movers - North jumping up significantly at the expense of GWS, who are in freefall. The Hawks take a big hit as well, dropping below the ‘average’ team for the first time this year.

At the bottom, the Lions big win catapaults them to their highest rating since Round 3, 2014. Carlton takes back bottom spot after their massive loss to the Dees.

Simulations

Richmond take a big hit in our simulations. They now only sit 0.4 games on average better than WCE, after being as much as 3.5 clear in previous weeks. They also drop their minor premiership chances from ~66% to ~45%. Most of that goes to WCE, with Sydney and, remarkably, Melbourne, our next bets at around 9%.

The finals race still appears to be between our 11 teams that we’ve been watching, but some teams chances as slipping by the week. GWS has dropped to ~25%, with North and Hawks just below 50%. Richmond, West Coast and Sydney are looking pretty good in more than 90% of our simulations, with the remainder of those 11 teams pretty even.

Predictions

The match of the round looms to be Sunday afternoon in Alice Springs - the resurgant Demons and the consistant crows. We have both teams relatively close on ratings and, both with not a lot of ground history, Melbourne get the edge as the designated home team. If the Demons can win by more than expected, they will continue their climb up our ratings!

Happy tipping and you can follow along with how these tips (and others) go at The Squiggle

Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result
Fri, 25 Docklands Collingwood Footscray 22 65.5% Collingwood by 22
Sat, 26 M.C.G. Richmond St Kilda 42 77.9% Richmond by 42
Sat, 26 Gabba Brisbane Lions Sydney -18 36.5% Sydney by 18
Sat, 26 Kardinia Park Geelong Carlton 44 78.6% Geelong by 44
Sat, 26 Blacktown GWS Essendon 17 62.2% GWS by 17
Sun, 27 Docklands Hawthorn West Coast -8 43.3% West Coast by 8
Sun, 27 Perth Stadium Fremantle North Melbourne -4 46.6% North Melbourne by 4
Sun, 27 Traeger Park Melbourne Adelaide 3 52.1% Melbourne by 3
comments powered by Disqus