Round 11 is on us - read on for an overview of the weekend ahead. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle.
Ratings
Don’t look now but we have a new ELO leader! The Demons, on the back of three huge weeks have jumped the competition to be in top spot.
Given this, I wondered when was the last time they reached these heights? Firstly, we can look at the last time they had an ELO this high.
## # A tibble: 172 x 8
## # Groups: Team [1]
## Date Game Round Round.Number Status ELO ELO_pre Team
## <date> <int> <int> <int> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <chr>
## 1 2018-05-27 15288 10 10 Home 1604. 1566. Melbourne
## 2 1994-09-18 10799 26 26 Home 1608. 1576. Melbourne
## 3 1964-09-19 6558 21 21 Home 1631. 1635. Melbourne
## 4 1964-09-05 6556 19 19 Home 1635. 1602. Melbourne
## 5 1964-08-15 6548 17 17 Away 1639. 1642. Melbourne
## 6 1964-08-08 6538 16 16 Home 1642. 1645. Melbourne
## 7 1964-08-01 6536 15 15 Home 1645. 1646. Melbourne
## 8 1964-07-25 6525 14 14 Away 1646. 1653. Melbourne
## 9 1964-07-18 6524 13 13 Home 1653. 1640. Melbourne
## 10 1964-07-11 6517 12 12 Away 1640. 1631. Melbourne
## # ... with 162 more rows
So they briefly were above their current level in 1994 and then not since wayyyy back in 1964, the year of their last Premiership.
What about being on top of the ratings?
## # A tibble: 234 x 10
## # Groups: Season, Round [234]
## Date Game Round Round.Number Status ELO ELO_pre Team Season
## <date> <int> <int> <int> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 2018-05-27 15288 10 10 Home 1604. 1566. Melbou… 2018.
## 2 1994-09-18 10799 26 26 Home 1608. 1576. Melbou… 1994.
## 3 1994-04-30 10666 6 6 Away 1597. 1599. Melbou… 1994.
## 4 1994-04-22 10657 5 5 Home 1599. 1588. Melbou… 1994.
## 5 1990-05-19 10019 8 8 Home 1592. 1587. Melbou… 1990.
## 6 1965-06-05 6601 8 8 Away 1600. 1583. Melbou… 1965.
## 7 1965-05-29 6598 7 7 Away 1583. 1587. Melbou… 1965.
## 8 1965-04-19 6563 1 1 Away 1601. 1607. Melbou… 1965.
## 9 1964-09-19 6558 21 21 Home 1631. 1635. Melbou… 1964.
## 10 1964-09-05 6556 19 19 Home 1635. 1602. Melbou… 1964.
## # ... with 224 more rows, and 1 more variable: rank <int>
Again, we have to look to the 1994 season and then back to their premiership era. I wonder how long the lid will stay on?
The remainder of our ratings reveals some distinct groups at the top - the top 4 of Melbourne, West Coast, Richmond and Sydney are all neck and neck. Geelong sits a bit in no-mans land between that top group and our chasing pack of finals aspirants in Adelaide, Port, Collingwood and North.
Simulations
Those top 9 teams continue to battle it out for our finals spots in our simulations - the leading pack all now but assured of making it with probabilities of >90%. Hawthorn, on the back of some banked wins and a presumably soft draw, still remains close to a 50% chance of making it, despite sitting a lowly 11th on our ratings. It is starting to look like a battle between them, North and Adelaide for that final 8th spot.
Of course, as we’ve seen with GWS and Melbourne, those chances can change dramatically on the back of some big wins or losses!
The race for the minor premiership has also been blown open - what was seemingly the Tigers to lose is now a pretty even race between West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne.
Predictions
It looks like a pretty lopsided weekend on paper. The only game with a margin of less than 2 goals being the Port v Hawks game. Both teams are pretty precariously placed in our ratings and simulations so we may learn a bit about their finals chances!
Happy tipping and you can follow along with how these tips (and others) go at The Squiggle
Day | Venue | Home.Team | Away.Team | Prediction | Probability | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fri, 01 | S.C.G. | Sydney | Carlton | 54 | 83.1% | Sydney by 54 |
Sat, 02 | Docklands | Footscray | Melbourne | -29 | 29.1% | Melbourne by 29 |
Sat, 02 | York Park | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide | -3 | 47.7% | Port Adelaide by 3 |
Sat, 02 | Carrara | Gold Coast | Geelong | -25 | 32.0% | Geelong by 25 |
Sat, 02 | Perth Stadium | West Coast | St Kilda | 47 | 80.2% | West Coast by 47 |
Sat, 02 | M.C.G. | Essendon | Richmond | -14 | 39.1% | Richmond by 14 |
Sun, 03 | Docklands | North Melbourne | Brisbane Lions | 29 | 70.2% | North Melbourne by 29 |
Sun, 03 | M.C.G. | Collingwood | Fremantle | 31 | 71.2% | Collingwood by 31 |
Sun, 03 | Adelaide Oval | Adelaide | GWS | 22 | 65.5% | Adelaide by 22 |