Round 11 AFL Mens Preview

Round 11 is on us - read on for an overview of the weekend ahead. You can see my tips, as always, at this link or on Squiggle.

Ratings

Don’t look now but we have a new ELO leader! The Demons, on the back of three huge weeks have jumped the competition to be in top spot.

Given this, I wondered when was the last time they reached these heights? Firstly, we can look at the last time they had an ELO this high.

## # A tibble: 172 x 8
## # Groups:   Team [1]
##    Date        Game Round Round.Number Status   ELO ELO_pre Team     
##    <date>     <int> <int>        <int> <chr>  <dbl>   <dbl> <chr>    
##  1 2018-05-27 15288    10           10 Home   1604.   1566. Melbourne
##  2 1994-09-18 10799    26           26 Home   1608.   1576. Melbourne
##  3 1964-09-19  6558    21           21 Home   1631.   1635. Melbourne
##  4 1964-09-05  6556    19           19 Home   1635.   1602. Melbourne
##  5 1964-08-15  6548    17           17 Away   1639.   1642. Melbourne
##  6 1964-08-08  6538    16           16 Home   1642.   1645. Melbourne
##  7 1964-08-01  6536    15           15 Home   1645.   1646. Melbourne
##  8 1964-07-25  6525    14           14 Away   1646.   1653. Melbourne
##  9 1964-07-18  6524    13           13 Home   1653.   1640. Melbourne
## 10 1964-07-11  6517    12           12 Away   1640.   1631. Melbourne
## # ... with 162 more rows

So they briefly were above their current level in 1994 and then not since wayyyy back in 1964, the year of their last Premiership.

What about being on top of the ratings?

## # A tibble: 234 x 10
## # Groups:   Season, Round [234]
##    Date        Game Round Round.Number Status   ELO ELO_pre Team    Season
##    <date>     <int> <int>        <int> <chr>  <dbl>   <dbl> <chr>    <dbl>
##  1 2018-05-27 15288    10           10 Home   1604.   1566. Melbou…  2018.
##  2 1994-09-18 10799    26           26 Home   1608.   1576. Melbou…  1994.
##  3 1994-04-30 10666     6            6 Away   1597.   1599. Melbou…  1994.
##  4 1994-04-22 10657     5            5 Home   1599.   1588. Melbou…  1994.
##  5 1990-05-19 10019     8            8 Home   1592.   1587. Melbou…  1990.
##  6 1965-06-05  6601     8            8 Away   1600.   1583. Melbou…  1965.
##  7 1965-05-29  6598     7            7 Away   1583.   1587. Melbou…  1965.
##  8 1965-04-19  6563     1            1 Away   1601.   1607. Melbou…  1965.
##  9 1964-09-19  6558    21           21 Home   1631.   1635. Melbou…  1964.
## 10 1964-09-05  6556    19           19 Home   1635.   1602. Melbou…  1964.
## # ... with 224 more rows, and 1 more variable: rank <int>

Again, we have to look to the 1994 season and then back to their premiership era. I wonder how long the lid will stay on?

The remainder of our ratings reveals some distinct groups at the top - the top 4 of Melbourne, West Coast, Richmond and Sydney are all neck and neck. Geelong sits a bit in no-mans land between that top group and our chasing pack of finals aspirants in Adelaide, Port, Collingwood and North.

Simulations

Those top 9 teams continue to battle it out for our finals spots in our simulations - the leading pack all now but assured of making it with probabilities of >90%. Hawthorn, on the back of some banked wins and a presumably soft draw, still remains close to a 50% chance of making it, despite sitting a lowly 11th on our ratings. It is starting to look like a battle between them, North and Adelaide for that final 8th spot.

Of course, as we’ve seen with GWS and Melbourne, those chances can change dramatically on the back of some big wins or losses!

The race for the minor premiership has also been blown open - what was seemingly the Tigers to lose is now a pretty even race between West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne.

Predictions

It looks like a pretty lopsided weekend on paper. The only game with a margin of less than 2 goals being the Port v Hawks game. Both teams are pretty precariously placed in our ratings and simulations so we may learn a bit about their finals chances!

Happy tipping and you can follow along with how these tips (and others) go at The Squiggle

Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result
Fri, 01 S.C.G. Sydney Carlton 54 83.1% Sydney by 54
Sat, 02 Docklands Footscray Melbourne -29 29.1% Melbourne by 29
Sat, 02 York Park Hawthorn Port Adelaide -3 47.7% Port Adelaide by 3
Sat, 02 Carrara Gold Coast Geelong -25 32.0% Geelong by 25
Sat, 02 Perth Stadium West Coast St Kilda 47 80.2% West Coast by 47
Sat, 02 M.C.G. Essendon Richmond -14 39.1% Richmond by 14
Sun, 03 Docklands North Melbourne Brisbane Lions 29 70.2% North Melbourne by 29
Sun, 03 M.C.G. Collingwood Fremantle 31 71.2% Collingwood by 31
Sun, 03 Adelaide Oval Adelaide GWS 22 65.5% Adelaide by 22
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