Round 11 - I made Thursday night!

After a solid week (that reminds me, I’ve got to get a ‘results’ page up!), we didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our team ratings. Check out our weekly preview below!


After some big movements last week, we didn’t see a whole lot of adjustment this week (which means our model is doing pretty well!). A little bit of shuffling down the bottom of the ladder as those teams (Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast and Freo) remain inconsistent.

GWS maintained their lead at the top of the table. Adelaide did their best to catch them, leapfrogging Port into the top two. Geelong remains just behind those three teams in a bit of a their of their own.


With little movement in our ratings, our simulations haven’t changed a whole lot. They have tightened around their predictions from last week. To recap: GWS and Adelaide are our standout contenders for the minor premeirship. Those two teams plus Port and Geelong are the best chances for top four. Outside of that, the only teams with greater than an 11% chance of the top 4 are West Coast and the Western Bulldogs.

Those six teams are also now rated above a 60% chance of making finals. The remaining spots are wide open, with 7 teams sitting with between a 25% and 50% chance of clinching a finals berth.

The most likely teams to usurp one of those 4 for a top four spot at this stage appear to be the Bulldogs with a 39% chance. Outside of that, no-one is above a 20% chance of making getting the double chance.

In terms of the top 8, outside of the 5 teams already mentioned, the race remains wide open. West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne remain the most likely, each having >50% chance of clinching a finals berth. However, 6 teams also sit with between an 18% chance (Collingwood) and a 37% chance (North) of getting there. In fact, only 3 teams have less than a 10% chance of getting there in Hawthorn (9%), Carlton (2%) and Brisbane (0%[ref]They don’t make it in any of our simulations but still could mathematically get there[/ref]).

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Finally, onto our crucial tips. If you check out The Squiggle you can see there are 3 games that the ‘models’ are finding it difficult to pick! Geelong v Adelaide, North v Richmond and Freo v Collingwood are all sitting at 50% when we take the models on aggregate!

In terms of the plusSixOne model, see our tips below.

Another Thursday night game looks to be a bit of a fizzer. Port remain 3rd on our ratings and should be too strong at home. The game of the round perhaps looks like Friday nights game at Geelong - two top 4 teams in our ratings. The model gives Adelaide the slight edge despite being the away team.

For the other tough games, we are tipping North to be slightly too strong for Richmond and we still don’t rate Freo that highly, giving Collingwood a good chance despite being the away team.

Enjoy the weekend and happy tipping!

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