I’ve separated out the simulations and ratings update into another post and I’ll just focus on this weeks games here.
Last week gave my ELO model a 4-peat of 6 out 9 tipping weeks. There were quite a few close tips this week, with an MAE of 23, bringing our season total to 64 (71%) with an MAE of 30.6.
To this weeks games, we see some tight matchups. Concretely, Geelong v GWS gives Geelong a slight edge with Home Ground Advantage. Similarly, the Bulldogs are tipped to slightly get up over WCE despite being rating below them due to being the home team. In our closest matchup, the away Port are expected to just get over Collingwood in a coin flip.