Last week was a great week for our model, tipping all 9 games correctly! Onto this weeks set of games and it looks like a tough round to tip! There are a bunch of games that are difficult to seperate by bookmakers and also by my ELO model.
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Sat 1:30pm Adelaide Oval
This game is setup to be super close - Port Adelaide have been surging in the last couple of weeks, bridging the originally wide chasm between 8th and 9th place. After gaining a whopping 28 ELO points last week, they enter this game as slight favourites due to the Home Ground Advantage. **Port by 3 points. **
Geelong v North Melbourne, Sat 7:25pm Etihad Stadium
My model continues to be unimpressed by North Melbourne, despite having the Xth best start to a season in the history of the AFL, currently rating them as 8th best side. Geelong’s recent mishaps against Collingwood and Carlton however were treated rather harshly by the ELO model, seeing them slip from the 2nd best to 7th best team. The two teams are almost identical in ratings, with Geelong getting a slight bump due to HGA. **Geelong by 9 points. **
West Coast v Adelaide, Sat 7:40pm Domain Stadium
Adelaide this week became the first team to topple Hawthorn as the top ranked team since 2014, however go into this one as slight underdogs due to playing away against the 4th best team by our ELO ratings. Could be the game of the round. **West Coast by 5 points. **
GWS v Sydney, Sun 4:40pm Spotless Stadium
Even taking away the subplot of big brother versus little brother, the ‘battle of the bridge’ promises to be a tight matchup between the 5th (GWS) and 3rd (Sydney) best teams in our ratings. HGA gives GWS the slight edge according to our model. GWS** by 4 points. **
Even games like Melbourne v Collingwood and St Kilda v Carlton promise to be close - my model is perhaps operating the home team chances here due to applying a flat home ground advantage, despite one probably not existing in these Melbourne based games[ref] something I’d like to fix[/ref]. The only real confidence that my model has appears to be losses for the 3 worst sides in my ratings system (Essendon 20%, Brisbane 37% and Gold Coast 31%).