My ELO model managed to tiptoe through the horror round 12 with a respectable 7 out of 9 tips and an MAE of 31.2. The two games it incorrectly tipped (Port v Bulldogs and WCE v Adelaide) were both within the margin of HGA in terms of tightness, so not unexpected results. The season total percentage is now creeping up with 80 correct tips (74.1%) and an MAE of 30.6.
There were some big movers in the ELO ratings this week. Adelaide extended its lead out in front, with an impressive win against West Coast in Perth while GWS cemented itself in the top 3 of our ratings with a big win over the previously 3rd best rated team in Sydney. Hawthorn received a big bump for its blowout win against the Bombers, although I suspect that Essendon this season might cause some headaches with our rating system as we go on. The other big movers were Fremantle and Melbourne, with bigger than expected wins, albeit against very low rated sides.
I may explore the horrible rating of the Lions and Bombers but the relative ratings difference between the Bombers and the 3rd worst team in the league (Gold Coast Suns) is 65 rating points (worth approximately 15 points in a game) is the same as the difference between Adelaide in 1st spot and North Melbourne in 8th spot! Pretty remarkable.
With Sydney losing big this week, they’ve dropped from 1st to 6th on our simulated ladder! North have also dropped from 2nd to 7th after a poor performance. Our model is beginning to become more certain on the top 8 as we go along, with Port Adelaide’s loss dropping their chance of a top 8 spot from 45% to 36%. The fact that the wins percentages are so close however suggests that, as per our ratings, there is little separating the top 9 teams this year.