Round 13 - Another Thursday, another last minute post

Quick Thursday post before I get on a plane. Enjoy!


The big news from last week was Port Adelaide. After flirting with top spot, they have plummeted outside our top 4 with a trashing by Essendon. Adelaide also regains their lead over GWS in a season that hasn’t been great for the top ranked team!

Essendon continue their climb up the ladder, passing the ‘average’ team mark for the first time since Round 9, 2015! The Lions also had a nice jump out of the depths of a rating of 1300.


It’s been a couple weeks since we looked at the simulations. Geelong has made ground on both Adelaide and GWS as the best chance to snatch a minor premiership or top 2 spot. Outside of those teams, no-one has a larger than 4% chance of the minor premiership or a larger than 12% chance of top 2 (that’s Port Adelaide in both cases).

Those three teams dominate the top 4’s in our simulations but the final spot has opened up. Richmond, Port and the Bulldogs all remain around a 1 in 3 shot of getting there, while a further 3 teams (WCE, Melbourne and Essendon) sit in double figure percentages.

Lastly, our finals race, as many have mentioned, remains wide open! All teams bar 4 (Freo, Hawks, Carlton and Brisbane) make the finals in more than 20% of simulations[ref]Collingwood is at 19%, but I’ll count it like a Collingwood 6 footer[/ref].

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Finally, onto our crucial tips. Again, there is some disagreement over on the The Squiggle! That is largely due to the close matchups we have this week. Our model is tipping close games in all games apart from the Port Adelaide v Lions matchup this week. In fact, 4 of those games are being tipped by less than 2 goals. It could be make or break in your tipping this week. Enjoy what should be a cracking game of football!

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