Continuing through the bye rounds, this week saw my ELO model managed to another 4 of the 6 games tipped correctly, with an MAE of 24.8. The two games we got wrong were the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Freo (we gave Freo a slight edge at 53%), and the enthralling upset win of St Kilda over Geelong.
We didn’t see a whole lot of movement in our ratings this week in the top 8 teams, apart from Adelaide extending their lead at the top of the ratings system. We are perhaps seeing a little bit of order appear in our top 8 after the logjam that existed a few rounds ago as well.
Last week our three biggest games on our match importance rating were Adelaide v North, St Kilda v Geelong and Hawthorn v GC. Given the relative strength of the teams in those last 2 games, I was a little disappointed that my new metric saw them as important, but after a big upset win by St Kilda, I can see why. With that loss, Geelong has dropped from 2nd to 5th on our simulated season ladder, with their top 4, top 2 and top 1 chances falling by between 12% and 18%. North also felt the impact of that loss, falling in all of our ladder position measures.
Our simulated season table below shows that the biggest impact on the weekend was probably felt by
We now see our top 2 rated teams also heading the top of our simulated season, with Hawthorn and Adelaide opening up pretty big gaps on the rest of the field in the top 4, top 2 and top 1 races.
Port Adelaides remain a roughly 1 in 5 chance to jump into the 8 after their bye, with St Kilda now making a big leap as a potential candidate to join them. They jump into finals roughly 17% of simulations, up from 9% last week.
Fremantle also becomes the 3rd team to not feature in finals in any of our 10000 simulated seasons after their big loss to a relatively poorly rated Collingwood.