Round 15 - bragging rights

After a good week last week (my ELO model tipped 8 out 9 in a tough round), we are back with another challenging round in what is proving to be a challenging year. Read below to find out more!


As like every week, we now have a new leader in our ratings! It seems like ELO favouritism doesn’t bode well so tip GWS with caution! Adelaide were probably the big losers from their big upset loss to the Hawks but given our tips were pretty accurate, there wasn’t a whole lot of movement in our tipping table.


The biggest beneficiary of Adelaides loss was probably GWS. Their chances of finishing minor premier jumped to nearly 50%! They are also firmed to finish top 2 in 2 out of every 3 simulations and are getting close to guaranteed a top 4 spot. Adelaide and Geelong are remain the best chance to snatch the minor premiership.

Adelaide’s loss also opened up Melbourne and Port’s top 4 chances, each jumping about 10%. Outside of GWS, Geelong and those three teams, Richmond maintains the best chance of sneaking into that vital top 4 at 25%.

We are finally starting to trim some teams from realistic finals chances! The list of teams with >10% chance of making it is down to 11 (down from 15 last week!). Unfortunately, of those 11 teams, 10 of them have >48 chance of making it! Those final spots remain very tightly contested.


This week again proves to be very difficult to tip! With so many teams close in our ratings, there continues to be a significant number of close matchups. 3 of our games are basically coin tosses! Melb v Syd, Bulldogs v West Coast and Hawthorn v Collingwood can’t be separated by more than 2 points!

I’m a lone wolf against Melbourne over at The Squiggle tonight, which is the opposite of last week. What a strange season! [ ](

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