Round 15 Predictions

I’ve been caught out by the Thursday game so I won’t have a chance to write a preview until tomorrow. Here are the predictions anyway!

UPDATE: So I’ve got around to taking a bit of a closer look at this rounds matches.

round15

Finally we reach our last bye round - I know I’m looking forward to getting to a full round of matches. There are a few tight matches according to our ELO model, however the tight matches all appear pretty meaningless according to our Match Importance metric.

Round15MatchImportance

By far and away the most important match this round is the Syd v WB match - having big implications for both teams top 4 chances. I had a nice discussion this week with @Matterofstats on twitter about that measure - he suggested trying to weight the value of importance based on the likelihood of it occurring. I hope to implement that this week but I encourage anyone to jump on and have a read of his methodology.

> > [@plusSixOneblog](https://twitter.com/plusSixOneblog) Tried similar last year. You might find you need weight the prob chg by the likelihood of the result > > — Tony Corke (@MatterOfStats) [June 30, 2016](https://twitter.com/MatterOfStats/status/748331931238993920)
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