Round 16 Results

For our first week out of the bye rounds and back to a full 9 games, my ELO model had a pretty good week, tipping 7 out 9 with an MAE of 24. The incorrect tips were GWS losing to Collingwood (a 29% chance)e and Geelong losing to Sydney (a 23% chance). The seas total is up to 99 tips from 135 games (73%) and an MAE 29.0.

Those two upset losses saw the biggest change in ELO ratings for the round with Geelong losing 21 ratings points (giving them to Sydney) and GWS losing 26 rating points (giving them to Collingwood). That saw both Sydney and West Coast leap above those two teams into 3rd and 4th, respectively. Collingwood has also jumped up to be an almost ‘average’ team.


I mentioned last week that the Geelong v Sydney game had our biggest match importance rating since I’ve started reporting it. That can be seen by the new simulated ladder, where Geelong has dropped down in top 4, top 2 and top 1 contention by between 8 and 16 percentage points. The model now only gives them a 5% chance of finishing on top. In contrast, Sydney has jumped up by 20 percentage points in top 4 calculations, with some smaller increases in top 2 and top 1 chance.

was certainly the Sydney v Bulldogs game, is would be expected by a matchup between two top 4 sides. The last minute goal to Jason Johannisen saw the Bulldogs leapfrog the Swans on our simulated season ladder. The Swans top 4 aspirations took a hit, dropping from 54% down to 44%, while the Bulldogs top 4 chances jumped from 34% to 46%. Given the tightness on the actual AFL ladder this season, there should be a few more of these big impact games coming up!


Hawthorn has firmed considerably in Minor Premier race, finishing on top in just over 1/3 of simulations, with Adelaide remaining the next best chance. Both of those teams also firmed slightly for top 4 and top 2 chances after the weekend.

Port’s loss saw its chances of top 8 fall again - they are now 3 wins outside of the 8 - now down to 20%. By far and way the most likely to drop down is now North Melbourne, missing the top 8 in 24% of simulations.

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