Round 17 - top of the table

For those following along - I’m out of Hospital! Following my neck injury, I’m back home and now working again which is good. Have to be in a neck brace for another 5 weeks and follow up with some potential surgery but it’s good to be past the worst of it.

I haven’t had a whole lot of time for the blog this week but read on for a bit of a preview!


The Giants have just managed to hold onto top stop despite their draw with the lowly (but resurgent) Hawks. It is certainly getting tight at the top, with very little separating GWS, Sydney, Adelaide and Geelong. Port remains probably on their own tier behind those 4 while the rest struggle to make any headways.


Our minor premiership looks to be a race in 3 now - GWS, Adelaide and Geelong all at similar probabilities. Similarly, those 3 dominate our Top 2 spots in the simulations, with Port still remaining the best chance to sneak in.

Outside of those 4, it is relatively even between Sydney, Melbourne, Richmond and St Kilda for a top 4 stop. I was surprised to see those teams finish top 4 each around 1 in 5 simulations. It does appear that the final spot in the 4 is the most readily available - GWS are nearly 90% chance to finish there!

Lastly, our realistic Top 8 race remains at 11. The Bulldogs are falling rapidly and now make finals less than a quarter of simulations. Essendon are the next most likely to miss out. After that, it is still pretty even for those teams below Port Adelaide.


Here are our tops this week. With that congestion at the top and middle of the table, we are again getting some close matchups. GWS v Sydney seems like the highlight as our top 2 ranked teams on ELO!

Happy tipping!

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