Round 18 Results

Last weekend saw our ELO model have its worst week for the season, tipping at less than 50% to record 4 correct tips out on 9. It was also the 2nd worst round of the year for the Margin component of the predictions, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 36.9 points.

In 4 matches last week, our had difficulty separating teams after the Home Ground Advantage was taken into account, giving the tipped winners less than a 55% chance of getting over the line. Unfortunately for our model, all of teams ended up losing (North Melbourne at 50.1%, Freo at 54%, Adelaide at 52% and Port Adelaide at 53%), with two other upsets also hurting (Essendon at 58% losing to the Lions and the Bulldogs at 70% losing to the Saints). Luckily the Swans scraped over the line against the Blues while West Coast managed to hold on against the Demons despite losing the Inside 50’s handsomely.

Onto our rating system and, with a poor round of tipping, that gives my model more ammo for changing team ratings to try and make sense of it all. Adelaide loses its 8 week long rein as our top team, handing the title back to Hawthorn after their disappointing loss to Geelong, who also benefit, gaining 13 points and jumping back into our top 4 in ratings. The biggest mover in our ratings was North Melbourne, who jumped 17 points and 2 positions to be tied for the 7th best team in the league.

ELO_post18 Our simulated season sees Hawthorn as the first team to clinch a finals birth for the year. They also strengthened their grip on securing home field advantage for the whole finals series and avoiding any travel, which could be important given some of the teams just below them. In fact, Hawthorn now finish on top in a neat 23 of our simulations.


The biggest loser from the weekends matches in terms of finals positioning appears to be Adelaide, losing 12%, 21% and 18% in their top 4, 2, and minor premiership chances, respectively. The main beneficiary of those chances has been Hawthorn, with only Geelong’s top 4 chances (up 15%) changing significantly outside of Hawthorn.

North bumped out their chances for holding onto top 8 by winning and Port losing, although the Saints have jumped up to be the most likely team to sneak into the 8 if North falter (currently North are at 73%, with Saints at 22%). Port has dropped to an 11% shot to make the finals, with no other team higher than 1%.

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