I must admit to not catching a lot of footy over the weekend due to having Olympics fever, which is probably good considering my ELO model had a tough round this week! With a few upsets, and 5 games decided by a goal or less, we struggled picking winners this week. The model managed to tip 5 out of 9 with a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 27.7.
As we touched upon in last weeks predictions, anecdotally it feels that this time of year is tricky to tip as many teams appear to have different agendas. I’ll hopefully explore that fully after the season since I’ve got the data to be able to explore this! Of the 4 missed games, only 1 involved top 8 sides - West Coast getting over GWS. The other games all involved teams who are essentially out of finals contention (Lions over Cartlon, Melbourne over Port Adelaide and Essendon over Gold Coast).
These results give us a season total of 129 out of 180 (71.7%), with a MAPE of 29.4