Round 3 predictions - showdown time

Onwards and upwards! Round 2 was a much better round for our ELO Rating system, correctly tipping 8 of the 9 games. I’ve got plans to get a page together that shows the progress of the tips throughout the year. Can we keep above 70% with an MAE below 30, as we scraped in last year? Here’s hoping.

Read More: ELO Rating system | Simulating the season | A history of the VFL/AFL plusSixOne ELO ratings


Our model is predicting some pretty one sided affairs this week. Only 2 games have the favourite at less than 60% with plenty of 4-5 goal predicted margins. Last week, going with the favourites seemed to work well - I wonder if this will continue?

Current Tips and Predictions | Squiggle

Below are a couple of selected interesting games involving two close matchups.

The Showdown, Sat 7:10pm, Adelaide Oval.

Top of the table clash after round 2 in a much anticipated showdown. The Crows have had 2 big wins against pretty highly ELO rated opponents so far. They are sitting just below top spot on our ELO ladder in 3rd. Port, similarly, had a fantastic away win against a (at the time) top ELO side in Sydney. The followed up with a thumping of a struggling Freo and currently sit as our 6th highest ranked team. It is often talked about form is thrown out the window in Showdowns (I do seem to remember someone running the numbers on this?). I might try run the numbers on that next week. Nonetheless, we will go with form as always._** Adelaide (55% chance) by 8 points. **_

Carlton v Essendon, Sun 3:20pm, MCG.

The traditional powerhouses of the AFL have found themselves down the bottom for a while. As The Arc pointed out recently - ELO rating systems struggle with teams like Essendon. Their form from last year is all we have to go off and, with such strong talent returning, they take a while to catch up.

Interesting to see Elo-style ratings put the Bombers’ chance of winning this weekend at 51-55%; markets @ 79%.

— The Arc (@TheArcFooty) April 6, 2017

The Bombers have risen rapidly so far this season - jumping from 2nd last by quite a bit all the way up to 13th. I suspect Carlton’s chances are inflated by our model still catching up to the Bombers true talent **Essendon (51% chance) by 1 point. **

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