Ratings and Simulations
The big loser here was clearly Adelaide, after a shock, heavy loss to Collingwood. They dropped from pretty clear top rated team down to 4th. Their Finals chances took a big hit, dropping down to 8th on our average simulated season ladder with a finals chance now below 70%.
Richmond’s big win vaulted them up to top spot on our ratings and also our simulated season! They finish top spot in nearly 30% of all (albeit very early) simulations.
Ratings wise, there is now a pretty linear progression from 1st down to 9th, with maybe two groupings of top 4 (Richmond, Sydney, GWS, Adelaide) and 5th-9th (Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood). These top 9 are, as expected, also finishing making finals in most simulations. All have >60% chance of reaching September.
There is a pretty big drop off after that to three even teams in North Melbourne, Melbourne and Essendon, all sitting just below the average rated team. They aren’t out of finals by a long shot but only make it that far in about 30% of simulations.
There is another drop to the Dogs, Saints and Dockers group before we have a decent step back to our cellar dwellers in Brisbane, Gold Coast and Carlton. All of those teams would have to launch a pretty epic turnaround to make it even from this early stage you’d think.
Onto the tips for this week.
|Fri, 27||Docklands||Footscray||Carlton||13||59.6%||Footscray by 13|
|Sat, 28||Kardinia Park||Geelong||Sydney||12||58.5%||Geelong by 12|
|Sat, 28||Docklands||North Melbourne||Port Adelaide||9||56.4%||North Melbourne by 9|
|Sat, 28||Blacktown||GWS||Brisbane Lions||45||79.2%||GWS by 45|
|Sat, 28||Adelaide Oval||Adelaide||Gold Coast||44||78.8%||Adelaide by 44|
|Sat, 28||York Park||Hawthorn||St Kilda||22||65.7%||Hawthorn by 22|
|Sun, 29||Docklands||Essendon||Melbourne||4||52.8%||Essendon by 4|
|Sun, 29||Perth Stadium||Fremantle||West Coast||-13||40.3%||West Coast by 13|
|Sun, 29||M.C.G.||Collingwood||Richmond||-4||46.3%||Richmond by 4|
I encourage you all to follow the Squiggle on Twitter and at the website. It collates tips from a range of different models. Max is putting a lot of great work in this year and the list of models is growing weekly!
Over the summer, Rob of Analysis of AFL fame and I started working on an R package for AFL. It’s called fitzRoy and is in it’s early stages. If you are into that kind of thing, you can see instructions for using it here. Any feedback, suggestions or contributions are more than welcome!
You’ll notice a new Koala logo. After 2 years of not having any kind of logo, I decided (thanks to Squiggle) that I needed something. My good friend and colleague, Tina Hsu (she doesn’t have Twitter) made me one. Many thanks to her!
I’ve started a Slack group for discussing AFL analytic’s. There is a great, diverse group of people so far in there. We’ve got some plans to do regular questions, sharing of data, ideas and general chit chat. If you’d like to join, it’s open to anyone. I do however need an email to sign you up - if you could fill that out here I’ll set you up within a day or so. I promise no spamming (I’ve no idea how to do that anyway).