Round 5 - AFL Men’s ratings updates and preview

Also a quick reminder that you always find full ratings and current tips updated each Monday.

Ratings and Simulations

The big loser here was clearly Adelaide, after a shock, heavy loss to Collingwood. They dropped from pretty clear top rated team down to 4th. Their Finals chances took a big hit, dropping down to 8th on our average simulated season ladder with a finals chance now below 70%.

Richmond’s big win vaulted them up to top spot on our ratings and also our simulated season! They finish top spot in nearly 30% of all (albeit very early) simulations.

Ratings wise, there is now a pretty linear progression from 1st down to 9th, with maybe two groupings of top 4 (Richmond, Sydney, GWS, Adelaide) and 5th-9th (Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood). These top 9 are, as expected, also finishing making finals in most simulations. All have >60% chance of reaching September.

There is a pretty big drop off after that to three even teams in North Melbourne, Melbourne and Essendon, all sitting just below the average rated team. They aren’t out of finals by a long shot but only make it that far in about 30% of simulations.

There is another drop to the Dogs, Saints and Dockers group before we have a decent step back to our cellar dwellers in Brisbane, Gold Coast and Carlton. All of those teams would have to launch a pretty epic turnaround to make it even from this early stage you’d think.


Onto the tips for this week.

Day Venue Home.Team Away.Team Prediction Probability Result
Fri, 27 Docklands Footscray Carlton 13 59.6% Footscray by 13
Sat, 28 Kardinia Park Geelong Sydney 12 58.5% Geelong by 12
Sat, 28 Docklands North Melbourne Port Adelaide 9 56.4% North Melbourne by 9
Sat, 28 Blacktown GWS Brisbane Lions 45 79.2% GWS by 45
Sat, 28 Adelaide Oval Adelaide Gold Coast 44 78.8% Adelaide by 44
Sat, 28 York Park Hawthorn St Kilda 22 65.7% Hawthorn by 22
Sun, 29 Docklands Essendon Melbourne 4 52.8% Essendon by 4
Sun, 29 Perth Stadium Fremantle West Coast -13 40.3% West Coast by 13
Sun, 29 M.C.G. Collingwood Richmond -4 46.3% Richmond by 4

Other business


I encourage you all to follow the Squiggle on Twitter and at the website. It collates tips from a range of different models. Max is putting a lot of great work in this year and the list of models is growing weekly!


Over the summer, Rob of Analysis of AFL fame and I started working on an R package for AFL. It’s called fitzRoy and is in it’s early stages. If you are into that kind of thing, you can see instructions for using it here. Any feedback, suggestions or contributions are more than welcome!

AFL Wonk

I’ve started a Slack group for discussing AFL analytic’s. There is a great, diverse group of people so far in there. We’ve got some plans to do regular questions, sharing of data, ideas and general chit chat. If you’d like to join, it’s open to anyone. I do however need an email to sign you up - if you could fill that out here I’ll set you up within a day or so. I promise no spamming (I’ve no idea how to do that anyway).

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