Last weekend I managed to tip 6 out of 9, with an MAE of 31.2. A bit better than the first week but also not as well as my models historical performance[ref] In reviewing the data this week, I found a small bug in my “Upcoming Round Prediction script” whereby I was giving the HGA to the away team, thus overestimating the performance of the Away Team by roughly 16 points. All fixed now, and it wasn’t a bug in my bigger Historical script, or the one I use to update ELO rankings, but it would have improved individual Round tips by 2 in Week six and 2 in Week seven! Annoying. [/ref]
Here are my Round 8 predictions, based on my ELO predictions[ref] I promise I have started writing the methodology[/ref]. I wrote about how there is a big gap currently in my ratings between the 8th placed North Melbourne and the 9th placed Port Adelaide. Interestingly this week, apart from the Friday night matchup between Adelaide and Geelong, the other top 8 teams in my rankings are all playing against teams below them. My ELO ratings do reward ‘better than expected’ performances, so it doesn’t necessarily mean that if each of those teams wins then the gap will widen, but it is an interesting quirk nonetheless.
And finally, I published yesterday my rest of season simulations, but here are those tables for reference here.